Mortgage Daily News Rate Watch

• Mortgage Rates Recover After Starting Higher
  Posted on Thursday May 21, 2026
  After posting a decent recovery from 9-month highs yesterday, it looked like mortgage rates were destined to bounce back toward slightly higher levels today. In fact, when lenders released their initial rates this morning, the average 30yr fixed rate was indeed moderately higher. But shortly after 1pm ET, news broke regarding additional progress in the Iran war peace process. Much like many similar headlines of late, this one could easily unravel in the coming hours, but the bond market responded positively enough to erase the day's losses. In general, when bonds are gaining, rates move lower. Today's intraday gains allowed lenders to "re-price" to lower rates. The average lender was just slightly lower than yesterday's latest levels as of 3pm ET. On the plus side, lower is lower, and that's a victory for today. On the other hand, rates are still very close to long-term highs in the bigger picture. Additionally, and to reiterate a point above, we've seen these sorts of news stories come and go with markets ultimately erasing the initial move after the next set of headlines push the narrative back in the other direction. Bottom line: this was a decent intraday gift, ... Continue Reading »
• Mortgage Rates Recover All of Yesterday's Losses
  Posted on Wednesday May 20, 2026
  Wednesday brought some much-needed relief for the mortgage market after rates surged to new 9 month highs of 6.75% yesterday. Whereas that rate spike was decoupled from the prevailing narrative of war-related headlines, today's recovery was quite the opposite. Newswires came out shortly after 10am ET that suggested the U.S. and Iran are nearing a final draft of a peace agreement. While such news has been prone to correction and revision, the market was nonetheless willing to respond quickly and rather forcefully. Oil prices dropped sharply with Treasury yields in tow. In the bond market, "yield" is another word for "rate." And because mortgage pricing is directly dictated by mortgage-specific bonds, when yields are falling, mortgage rates will almost always be falling as well. The average lender fully erased yesterday's rate spike, ultimately making it back below the levels seen on Monday afternoon. Granted, Monday's levels were still the highest in many months at the time, but we have to start somewhere. At the very least, today's market movement reiterates the fact that rates will likely make an even better recovery when the war is officially over. [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Continue Reading »
• Mortgage Rates Jump Again, Now up 0.75% Since Start of The War
  Posted on Tuesday May 19, 2026
  It was another rough day for the bond market and, thus, for interest rates. Investors aggressively sold bonds in the first 2 hours of trading, taking 10yr Treasury yields to the highest level in more than a year. Mortgage-specific bonds have been doing better versus Treasuries in recent months thanks to increased purchase demand from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. All else equal, higher demand for mortgage bonds = lower rates, relatively. In the current case, it means mortgage rates haven't moved up as much as Treasury yields over the past 6 months. That said, rates have still definitely moved higher. Today's top tier 30yr fixed rate is up to 6.75% for the average lender--the highest since July 2025, and a whopping 0.75% higher since before the Iran war began. This makes it the fastest rate spike seen since late 2024. [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Continue Reading »
• Mortgage Rates Start Week at New 9 Month High, But Just Barely
  Posted on Monday May 18, 2026
  Mortgage rates hit their highest levels in more than 9 months at the end of last week. Now today, they've edged slightly higher yet again with the average top tier 30yr fixed rate at 6.68% versus 6.65% on Friday. This wasn't necessarily destined to be the case today. In fact the day began with the average lender unchanged. But the underlying market remains highly attuned to breaking news on the Iran war. Earlier in the day, that news was helpful for rates as it spoke to the possibility of compromise on a peace deal. Subsequent headlines refuted the initial news, thus pushing the financial market back in the other direction (i.e. toward higher rates). The result was that the average lender recalled their initial rate offerings and re-released higher rates. Things were on track to be even worse this afternoon when Trump said he was cancelling a planned attack and that serious negotiations were taking place. This helped bonds recover some of the earlier losses, but not enough for lenders to make any friendly rate adjustments today.  Continue Reading »
• Mortgage Rates Surge Toward 8-Month Highs
  Posted on Friday May 15, 2026
  Mortgage rates are driven by bonds and the bond market hoped to see more evidence of shift toward peace during the 2-day Trump/Xi meeting in China. As soon as Trump got back on the plane to head home, bonds began tanking (i.e. jumping to higher yields). When bond yields spike, mortgage rates follow, and today is no exception. The average top-tier 30yr fixed rate is up to 6.62% this morning, right in line with levels seen on March 26th and 27th and the highest since August 1st. If there's a silver lining, it's that mortgage rates aren't higher. Much of the credit goes to the ramp in purchases of mortgage-backed debt by Fannie and Freddie. The more mortgage debt they buy, the better it is for mortgage rates relative to benchmarks like U.S. Treasuries. For instance, Treasuries are now well above the levels seen in late March and in line with levels from the first half of 2025 when mortgage rates were 7% instead of 6.62%. Continue Reading »
• Mortgage Rates Move Moderately Lower
  Posted on Thursday May 14, 2026
  May continues to be a more volatile month than the bulk of April when it comes to day over day mortgage rate movement. While the average day has seen that volatility play out in favor of higher rates, today was thankfully the opposite.  Yesterday's latest levels left the average lender at 6 week highs with a top tier 30yr fixed rate of 6.57. The underlying bond market was already beginning to recover yesterday afternoon. Combined with additional, modest bond market improvement overnight, today's 30yr fixed rate fell to 6.52% on average. The Iran war remains the primary source of volatility for markets. Some analysts expect more traction on a peace deal to come out of Trump's meeting with Xi (which will continue into tomorrow). This is far from a given, but if it happens, it would almost certainly put additional downward pressure on rates. Continue Reading »
• Mortgage Rates Officially at 6 Week Highs
  Posted on Wednesday May 13, 2026
  Mortgage rates rose somewhat sharply yesterday to match the highest level since March 27th. They're just a hair higher today, thus officially at 6-week highs.  Whereas yesterday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) didn't have an obviously negative impact on rates, today's Producer Price Index (PPI) did. Both are big inflation reports. CPI is typically much more likely to cause a reaction in rates, but PPI showed a much bigger surge in inflation this morning. Even then, the underlying bond market wasn't too much worse by the end of the day and the mortgage-specific bond market actually made a full recovery. But that recovery was too gradual and shallow for the average lender to adjust their rates today. That left our rate index 0.01% higher day over day at 6.57% for a top tier 30yr fixed. [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Continue Reading »
• Mortgage Rates Match Highest Level Since March
  Posted on Tuesday May 12, 2026
  When the Iran war was in its initial escalation phase, the initial surge in markets took the top-tier 30yr fixed rate to 6.64% for the average lender by March 27th. Rates moved more than 0.30% lower by mid April as peace prospect improved.  The third phase of rate movement began in late April and has generally involved a jump back up toward 6.5% with the first 2 days of the present week accounting for a move from 6.42% to 6.56%. That matches the highest level seen since March 27th. Bonds yields (which underlie rates) have followed longer-term oil prices to their highest recent levels as Trump said the U.S. is not in a hurry to end the war.  [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Continue Reading »
• Mortgage Rates Rising to Start New Week
  Posted on Monday May 11, 2026
  Last week was decidedly stronger for mortgage rates as they either held steady or moved lower on 5 out of 5 days. All told, it was a 0.14% drop from the previous week in terms of the average top-tier 30yr fixed rate.  The new week is starting out in opposite fashion with rates moving up 0.07% today alone. This follows news over the weekend that Trump rejected Iran's counterproposal to end the war. In general, the longer the war continues, the higher oil prices will remain.  Oil price don't dictate rates, but there's currently a lot of correlation due to inflation implications. Oil naturally impacts the cost to ship goods, so a rapid spike in oil prices increases inflation. Rates are based on bonds, and bonds hate inflation. In fact, inflation is technically a component of bond yields (aka "rates"). Despite the rocky start to the week, we're not necessarily destined to move in one direction or the other. Everything depends on progress toward peace, or lack thereof. To a lesser extent, this week's incoming economic data can also have an impact. Coincidentally, much of that data focuses on inflation for the month of April. Continue Reading »
• Mortgage Rates End Week Slightly Lower
  Posted on Friday May 08, 2026
  It ended up being a decent round trip for rates this week. Monday kicked things off with a jump to the highest level in more than a month, and the third highest since August 2025. But that ended up being the only day where rates went higher.  Wednesday brough the biggest chunk of the recovery with MND's daily rate index dropping 0.10%.  Tuesday and Friday (today) each added a 0.02% drop, taking the index to 6.42% after ending last week at 6.44%. War-related headlines were less of a factor today and volatility was unsurprisingly lighter as a result. This is an adjustment for seasoned rate watchers who are used to monthly jobs report being a distinct source of volatility. It's especially notable that the job count came in significantly higher with no ill effect on bonds/rates. Over the past 6 months, markets have shifted their jobs report focus from the payroll count to the unemployment rate, reversing decades of precedent. Today's outcome is more logical in that context as the unemployment rate was right in line with expectations at 4.3%. Continue Reading »

Mortgage Daily News Rates Update

• Why Did Rates Completely Ignore This Week's Bad News?
  Posted on Friday November 05, 2021
  This week, the Fed announced a reduction in its bond buying. In separate news, the big jobs report was much stronger than expected. Both of these events should have pushed rates higher. So why didn't they? Let's start with the Fed and its bond buying adventures (also known as QE or "quantitative easing").  The following chart of 10yr Treasury yields (a broad benchmark for "rates") shows the paradoxical reactions to the Fed's previous decisions to stop buying bonds. In other words, we knew a paradoxical reaction was a possibility , even though past precedent is never a guarantee.  Beyond that, we also knew that rates were moving higher in anticipation of the Fed's eventual exit.  In fact, by last week, they'd already covered as much ground as they did in 2013. Continue Reading »
• Mortgage Rates Started Flat, But Moved Lower During The Day
  Posted on Thursday November 04, 2021
  Mortgage rates  fell today as markets decompressed following yesterday's announcement from the Federal Reserve regarding the reduction of its bond buying efforts (aka "tapering").   Despite the proximity to Fed day, markets were more inspired by another central bank today: the Bank of England (BOE).   The BOE had its own policy announcement early this morning.  Unlike the Fed, there was broad disagreement about the BOE's course of action.  They ended up making the more rate-friendly decision and global bond markets reacted immediately.  Unsurprisingly, it was the British bond market that had the best day, but there's always a certain degree of correlation between UK and US lending rates.  As US sovereign debt yields fell, mortgage-backed b Continue Reading »
• Minimal Damage For Mortgage Rates Following Fed
  Posted on Wednesday November 03, 2021
  Mortgage rates  moved higher today after the Federal Reserve announced a reduction in its rate-friendly bond buying program.  Actually, to be fair, rates moved higher before  the Fed made that announcement, and largely for other reasons.  The biggest issue today was, in fact, a widely followed report on the service sector (ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI) which crushed its previous record high.  Bonds experienced additional volatility in the afternoon following the Fed announcement, but they were able to recover back to pre-Fed levels within 2 hours. The average mortgage lender began the day offering similar rates to those seen yesterday.  Several lenders responded to bond market weakness by raising rates slightly in the middle of the day.  The average b Continue Reading »
• Another Good Day For Rates, But Tomorrow is Anyone's Guess
  Posted on Tuesday November 02, 2021
  Mortgage rates began the day moderately lower compared to yesterday's latest levels.  The size of the move depends on the time of day in question due to intraday movement in the bond market.  Simply put, bonds improved steadily from the beginning of the day yesterday and ultimately peaked around 11am today.  In general, bond market improvement correlates with lower rates. The first effect of this 2-day move was for the average lender to offer mid-day improvements yesterday.  Those who did (a vast majority) were still able to offer even lower rates this morning.  Lenders who did NOT offer mid day improvements yesterday made even bigger leaps toward lower rates.  When the dust cleared, the peak to trough move accounted for almost an eighth of a percent Continue Reading »
• Mortgage Rates Catch Up To Last Week's Market Movement (That's a Good Thing)
  Posted on Monday November 01, 2021
  Mortgage rates moved moderately lower today despite an absence of significant movement in the bond market.  In general, when bonds improve, rates fall (and vice versa), but it's not feasible for mortgage lenders to adjust their rates offerings in relative real-time as bonds can send massively mixed signals on any given day.   Last Friday was just such a day.  It began with bonds doing very poorly .  The weakness was in place before the average lender published their first rate sheet of the day, so mortgage rates started out higher.  As the day progressed, bonds improved enough for many lenders to make mid-day improvements to rates, but bonds suggested the improvements should have been bigger. That's where today came in.  Bonds began weaker yet a Continue Reading »
• Don't Fear The Taper
  Posted on Friday October 29, 2021
  For anyone following interest rates very closely in 2013, the taper tantrum is not easily forgotten. It describes the bond market's knee-jerk response to the realization that the Federal Reserve would be winding down its bond purchase program. With the Fed almost certain to make a similar announcement next Wednesday, should we be scared yet again? In a word: no .   Of course, we'll need to qualify that.  First off, whether or not we should be scared has little to do with whether or not the taper announcement will push rates higher.  Perhaps the better question--the one to which we can answer a more unqualified "no"--is as follows: Should we be afraid that next week's tapering announcement from the Fed will push rates higher?! There are a few reasons we can answe Continue Reading »
• Mortgage Rate Mini-Winning Streak Comes to an End
  Posted on Thursday October 28, 2021
  Mortgage rates  finally ended this week's winning streak today.  In light of the general upward trend in rates over the past month, bond yields (which tend to correlate with mortgage rate movement) made it to surprisingly low levels as of yesterday afternoon.  Mortgage lenders responded by dropping rates to the best levels in nearly 2 weeks. Things changed today as bonds lost ground after the European Central Bank noted a still-decent outlook for the economy recovery and an earlier-than-expected outlook for ending its bond purchase program.  In general, a stronger economy hurts bonds and central bank purchases help. Then in the afternoon, a scheduled auction of 7yr US Treasuries was met with less enthusiastic demand compared to recent auctions.  The day Continue Reading »
• Mortgage Rates Hold Steady Near Multi-Month Highs
  Posted on Wednesday October 20, 2021
  Mortgage rates  began moving off longer term lows in early August and that trend has continued ever since.  The September 22nd Fed Announcement (and press conference with Fed Chair Powell) served as a jumping-off point for additional volatility and upward momentum.  In contrast, October has generally seen rates rise at a more gradual pace.  On several occasions, they've merely held almost perfectly in line with the previous day's levels. Today is just such a day! There were no notable motivations for the underlying bond market today (bonds dictate interest rates).  As such, today's sideways momentum makes sense.  That said, it's worth mentioning that there are different versions of "sideways" when it comes to the financial market.  Today's versio Continue Reading »
• Highest Rates in Months
  Posted on Monday October 18, 2021
  Mortgage rates had a mixed showing last week.  They started out high before improving through Thursday.  Finally, they took a step back up on Friday.  Now at the start of the new week, the upward momentum is continuing.  The bond market was much weaker in overnight trading, and weaker bonds mean higher rates, all other things being equal.  Bonds hit their weakest levels just before the average mortgage lender released rates for the day.  As such, the average conventional 30yr fixed rate quote was the highest in roughly 4 months .   As the day progressed, bonds found their footing to some extent.  It was enough for most lenders to offer mid-day improvements to rates.  Keep in mind though, these improvements are generally small. Continue Reading »
• No, Mortgage Rates Are Not "Sharply Higher" This Week
  Posted on Thursday October 14, 2021
  Mortgage rates   fell today as a majority of lenders finally got caught up with the past few days of strength in the bond market.  Lenders rely on bonds--specifically mortgage-backed securities (MBS)--to determine where to set mortgage rates.  Bonds are constantly on the move, but lenders prefer to just set mortgage rates once per day, if possible.  As such, when volatility is higher and when rates have been rising more than falling, lenders tend to be more defensive.  In other words, they need to see more sustained improvement than normal before bringing rates back down. Today's improvement was the biggest of the week, and it brings the average conventional 30yr fixed quote well below those seen at the end of last week.  Even so, there are numerous Continue Reading »

Mortgage Daily News NewsLetter

• Mortgage Rates Recover After Starting Higher
  Posted on Thursday May 21, 2026
  After posting a decent recovery from 9-month highs yesterday, it looked like mortgage rates were destined to bounce back toward slightly higher levels today. In fact, when lenders released their initial rates this morning, the average 30yr fixed rate was indeed moderately higher. But shortly after 1pm ET, news broke regarding additional progress in the Iran war peace process. Much like many similar headlines of late, this one could easily unravel in the coming hours, but the bond market responded positively enough to erase the day's losses. In general, when bonds are gaining, rates move lower. Today's intraday gains allowed lenders to "re-price" to lower rates. The average lender was just slightly lower than yesterday's latest levels as of 3pm ET. On the plus side, lower is low Continue Reading »
• Mortgage Rates Recover All of Yesterday's Losses
  Posted on Wednesday May 20, 2026
  Wednesday brought some much-needed relief for the mortgage market after rates surged to new 9 month highs of 6.75% yesterday. Whereas that rate spike was decoupled from the prevailing narrative of war-related headlines, today's recovery was quite the opposite. Newswires came out shortly after 10am ET that suggested the U.S. and Iran are nearing a final draft of a peace agreement. While such news has been prone to correction and revision, the market was nonetheless willing to respond quickly and rather forcefully. Oil prices dropped sharply with Treasury yields in tow. In the bond market, "yield" is another word for "rate." And because mortgage pricing is directly dictated by mortgage-specific bonds, when yields are falling, mortgage rates will almost always be falling as well. Continue Reading »
• Mortgage Rates Jump Again, Now up 0.75% Since Start of The War
  Posted on Tuesday May 19, 2026
  It was another rough day for the bond market and, thus, for interest rates . Investors aggressively sold bonds in the first 2 hours of trading, taking 10yr Treasury yields to the highest level in more than a year. Mortgage-specific bonds have been doing better versus Treasuries in recent months thanks to increased purchase demand from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. All else equal, higher demand for mortgage bonds = lower rates, relatively. In the current case, it means mortgage rates haven't moved up as much as Treasury yields over the past 6 months. That said, rates have still definitely moved higher. Today's top tier 30yr fixed rate is up to 6.75% for the average lender--the highest since July 2025, and a whopping 0.75% higher since before the Iran war began. This makes it the fas Continue Reading »
• Mortgage Rates Start Week at New 9 Month High, But Just Barely
  Posted on Monday May 18, 2026
  Mortgage rates hit their highest levels in more than 9 months at the end of last week. Now today, they've edged slightly higher yet again with the average top tier 30yr fixed rate at 6.68% versus 6.65% on Friday. This wasn't necessarily destined to be the case today. In fact the day began with the average lender unchanged. But the underlying market remains highly attuned to breaking news on the Iran war. Earlier in the day, that news was helpful for rates as it spoke to the possibility of compromise on a peace deal. Subsequent headlines refuted the initial news, thus pushing the financial market back in the other direction (i.e. toward higher rates). The result was that the average lender recalled their initial rate offerings and re-released higher rates. Things were on track t Continue Reading »
• Mortgage Rates Surge Toward 8-Month Highs
  Posted on Friday May 15, 2026
  Mortgage rates are driven by bonds and the bond market hoped to see more evidence of shift toward peace during the 2-day Trump/Xi meeting in China. As soon as Trump got back on the plane to head home, bonds began tanking (i.e. jumping to higher yields). When bond yields spike, mortgage rates follow, and today is no exception. The average top-tier 30yr fixed rate is up to 6.62% this morning, right in line with levels seen on March 26th and 27th and the highest since August 1st. If there's a silver lining, it's that mortgage rates aren't higher. Much of the credit goes to the ramp in purchases of mortgage-backed debt by Fannie and Freddie. The more mortgage debt they buy, the better it is for mortgage rates relative to benchmarks like U.S. Treasuries. For instance, Treasuries are Continue Reading »
• Mortgage Rates Move Moderately Lower
  Posted on Thursday May 14, 2026
  May continues to be a more volatile month than the bulk of April when it comes to day over day mortgage rate movement. While the average day has seen that volatility play out in favor of higher rates, today was thankfully the opposite.  Yesterday's latest levels left the average lender at 6 week highs with a top tier 30yr fixed rate of 6.57. The underlying bond market was already beginning to recover yesterday afternoon. Combined with additional, modest bond market improvement overnight, today's 30yr fixed rate fell to 6.52% on average. The Iran war remains the primary source of volatility for markets. Some analysts expect more traction on a peace deal to come out of Trump's meeting with Xi (which will continue into tomorrow). This is far from a given, but if it happens, it would al Continue Reading »
• Mortgage Rates Officially at 6 Week Highs
  Posted on Wednesday May 13, 2026
  Mortgage rates rose somewhat sharply yesterday to match the highest level since March 27th. They're just a hair higher today, thus officially at 6-week highs.  Whereas yesterday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) didn't have an obviously negative impact on rates, today's Producer Price Index (PPI) did. Both are big inflation reports. CPI is typically much more likely to cause a reaction in rates, but PPI showed a much bigger surge in inflation this morning. Even then, the underlying bond market wasn't too much worse by the end of the day and the mortgage-specific bond market actually made a full recovery. But that recovery was too gradual and shallow for the average lender to adjust their rates today. That left our rate index 0.01% higher day over day at 6.57% for a top tier 30yr fixed. Continue Reading »
• Mortgage Rates Match Highest Level Since March
  Posted on Tuesday May 12, 2026
  When the Iran war was in its initial escalation phase, the initial surge in markets took the top-tier 30yr fixed rate to 6.64% for the average lender by March 27th. Rates moved more than 0.30% lower by mid April as peace prospect improved.  The third phase of rate movement began in late April and has generally involved a jump back up toward 6.5% with the first 2 days of the present week accounting for a move from 6.42% to 6.56%. That matches the highest level seen since March 27th. Bonds yields (which underlie rates) have followed longer-term oil prices to their highest recent levels as Trump said the U.S. is not in a hurry to end the war.  [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Continue Reading »
• Mortgage Rates Rising to Start New Week
  Posted on Monday May 11, 2026
  Last week was decidedly stronger for mortgage rates as they either held steady or moved lower on 5 out of 5 days. All told, it was a 0.14% drop from the previous week in terms of the average top-tier 30yr fixed rate.  The new week is starting out in opposite fashion with rates moving up 0.07% today alone. This follows news over the weekend that Trump rejected Iran's counterproposal to end the war. In general, the longer the war continues, the higher oil prices will remain.  Oil price don't dictate rates, but there's currently a lot of correlation due to inflation implications. Oil naturally impacts the cost to ship goods, so a rapid spike in oil prices increases inflation. Rates are based on bonds, and bonds hate inflation. In fact, inflation is technically a component of bond yie Continue Reading »
• Mortgage Rates End Week Slightly Lower
  Posted on Friday May 08, 2026
  Mortgage applications declined last week, reversing some of the prior period’s gains as rates climbed to their highest level in a month. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 4.4% decrease on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending May 1. The decline was broad-based, with both purchase and refinance activity moving lower. The Refinance Index fell 5% from the previous week but remained 29% higher than the same week one year ago. Meanwhile, the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 4% week over week and was still 5% above last year’s level. In the bigger picture, purchase apps remain closer to the highest levels of the past few years. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate increased to 6.45% from 6.37%, marking the highest reading Continue Reading »

Mortgage Daily News Commentary

• Bonds Turn Red Overnight on War Headlines
  Posted on Thursday May 21, 2026
  Bonds spent most of the overnight session moving sideways to slightly stronger, but everything changed at 6:20am. That's when news broke regarding a statement from Iran's Khamenei saying that Uranium should not leave the country. Given that this is a sticking point for peace negotiations, the response in bonds/oil/etc was immediate and clear. Yields rose from 4.575 to 4.62 and continue to trade near there ever since. While there was a decent little chunk of line items on the econ calendar at 8:30am this morning, none of them generated any volume or volatility. Continue Reading »
• Full Reversal And Then Some
  Posted on Wednesday May 20, 2026
  Full Reversal And Then Some Bonds more than made up from Tuesday's rout with a massive rally on Wednesday. Unlike Tuesday's move, which was driven by bond-market-specific selling pressure on the part of one account's massive liquidations, Wednesday's rally was broad-based and driven by war-related headlines. Specifically, newswires suggested the U.S. and Iran are now very close to agreeing on a plan to end the war. The market isn't just hearing "wolf!" It's pretty sure it's seeing an actual wolf on the horizon. This is important and ongoing proof of concept regarding the prospect of additional improvement in the event speculation becomes reality. Conversely, it's also a reminder that things can change quickly if the peace narrative deteriorates in coming days. Market Movement Recap ... Continue Reading »
• Bleeding Subsides For Now, Headlines Helping But Bonds Remain Cautious
  Posted on Wednesday May 20, 2026
  Tuesday's massive wave of bond-specific weakness still has the analytical community scratching its collective head. Our contacts are either saying nothing or telling us they're just as perplexed. So far this morning, there hasn't been any sort of repeat performance.  Lower oil prices have helped bonds find their footing, but the move has relied on breaking news regarding the potential for the final text of the peace agreement to be drafted by tomorrow. On the calendar front, the 2pm FOMC Minutes release is the only thing that seems like it might be relevant, but as a reminder, this is just a more detailed account of the meeting that took place 3 weeks ago, and we've heard plenty of Fed speakers clarify their outlook over those 3 weeks.  Continue Reading »
• Whales Making Waves in Treasury Futures
  Posted on Tuesday May 19, 2026
  Whales Making Waves in Treasury Futures Nerd alert: there's no way to discuss what happened in the bond market today without getting a bit nerdy. Reason being, there was an absolute deluge of block trades in Treasury futures (over $20bln--the biggest day we can remember for outright block trades). There are a few different possibilities for how this went down, but the size, structure, and timing of those trades suggests that only one or two massive players were involved. The saving grace of a move like this is that it means there was not broad-based selling pressure from a majority of the market. And although this could be viewed as "thought leadership" that inspires other sellers, those sellers had a chance to jump on the bandwagon today and instead held their ground.  ... Continue Reading »
• Increasing Signs of Bond-Specific Panic
  Posted on Tuesday May 19, 2026
  Ever since the initial 2 week ceasefire was announced in the Iran war, the bond market has adhered to trend channels that align with either de-escalation or re-escalation sentiment. Nothing too complicated here: if sentiment is trending in favor of peace, bonds have rallied. If sentiment is deteriorating, bonds have sold off. There was a temporary diversion as traders waited to see if last week's China summit would be a catalyst for a shift. When the summit failed to deliver, yields jumped back in line with the re-escalation trend. Now this morning, they're already challenging the bearish boundary of that trend WITHOUT any new justification from an oil price spike, stock market rout, or any new news on the war. In other words, bonds are telling politicians to get serious about ending the war or face increasingly dire consequences. Continue Reading »
• Bombarded by Headlines, But Little-Changed
  Posted on Monday May 18, 2026
  Bombarded by Headlines, But Little-Changed Monday's trading session ended up being an exercise in headline-watching, as has been the case on so many days since the start of the Iran war. Today was more active than normal in that regard. The earliest headlines (as covered in the AM commentary) were helpful until they weren't. Subsequent headlines continued pushing back on the notion of an easy peace deal until 3pm. At that point, Trump posted that a planned military operation for tomorrow was cancelled and that serious negotiations were now taking place between great leaders and allies, and that a deal will be made. Bond yields and oil prices dropped on that one with Treasuries ultimately making it back to unchanged in the final hour of the session. ... Continue Reading »
• Early Gains And Losses on Conflicting War Headlines
  Posted on Monday May 18, 2026
  Bonds began the overnight session by drifting somewhat higher in yield. The 10yr hit 4.63 before recovering modestly just before domestic trading began. Yields were still slightly higher at 7:30am but moved lower after headlines cited rumors that the U.S. agreed to lift Iran's oil sanctions. Subsequent headlines cited a revised counter-proposal from Iran in which it would accept a long-term freeze of its nuclear program in exchange for a truce and gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Bonds rallied on both those newswires with 10s making it below 4.57. They're since reversed course on a 3rd set of newswires citing Iran's negotiators as saying U.S. demand remain excessive despite the changes in the draft proposal. The chart below shows all 3 sets of newswires and the corresponding movement in oil/bonds with strong correlation. Continue Reading »
• Bonds Continued Drifting Weaker Throughout The Day (10yr Hit 4.6%)
  Posted on Friday May 15, 2026
  Bonds Continued Drifting Weaker Throughout The Day Nothing new or interesting happened during the course of the trading day. The key market movers were in place at the start of domestic trading. From an analytical standpoint, the morning commentary adequately recaps the day's bond market motivations. Yields continued drifting higher throughout the session as investors pulled out of both sides of the market in protest of the apparent extension of the Iran war timeframe. 10s ultimately tapped 4.6% and MBS flirted with a 3/4th point day-over-day drop. In the bigger picture, mortgage rates are doing much better than Treasuries compared to last year's levels thanks to GSE bond buying. Econ Data / Events ... Continue Reading »
• Highest Yields in a Year After Trump/Xi Summit
  Posted on Friday May 15, 2026
  Far too many market participants were apparently hoping that some sort of positive news on the war would be somehow facilitated by the Trump/Xi summit over the past 2 days. But talks wrapped up in the overnight session with little to show for it. There was actually very little notable discussion about the war. Both parties want it to end, but China does not appear to be on the verge of taking action in that regard. Bonds began selling early in the overnight session and continued in the same direction into domestic hours. 10yr yields are the highest since May 2025 and MBS are down over half a point. Bonds also have considerations beyond simply following oil prices as the cost of the war continues to add up to more Treasury issuance and inflation expectations.  Continue Reading »
• Rally Reverses, Leaving Bonds Weaker in The Afternoon
  Posted on Thursday May 14, 2026
  Rally Reverses, Leaving Bonds Weaker in The Afternoon The day began with promise, but devolved into yet another disappointment. After being almost a quarter point higher at 10am, MBS slid to an eighth point loss by the close. 10yr yields were as low as 4.44% early but were as high as 4.48% in the final hour of trading. Just as frustrating as the weakness is the fact that there's no discrete scapegoat in the news or data. That said, oil prices were also moving higher during the bond sell-off. Given the absence of war-related headlines, some traders could be getting antsy due to a lack of progress in the first of Trump and Xi's 2 day meeting. Ahead of the event, there was some speculation that it would be a venue to announce a peace deal. ... Continue Reading »

Mortgage Daily News Around The Web

Mortgage Daily News Video Feed

Mortgage Daily News Wire

• April Housing Inflation Data Fills in The Dots That Went Missing During The Government Shutdown
  Posted on Friday May 15, 2026
  The Bureau of Labor Statistics released a highly technical research paper this week examining how the agency handled missing shelter inflation data during the October 2025 government funding lapse. The issue stemmed from the CPI’s housing survey, which was unable to collect rent data during the shutdown period. With no fresh survey results available, BLS relied on a “carry-forward” methodology that essentially treated rents as unchanged for the affected sample. That decision temporarily froze the CPI’s rent and owners’ equivalent rent (OER) indexes in October 2025, likely making shelter inflation appear somewhat cooler than it actually was for the next several months. In the new paper, BLS tested several alternative approaches to estimate what shelter inflation may have looked like under different assumptions. Every alternative method produced firmer rent and OER inflation readings than the official CPI figures published at the time. Depending on the methodology used, the research suggests shelter inflation may have been understated by roughly 0.3% to 0.6% on a year-over-year basis during the affected stretch. That may sound minor, but for markets closely tracking inflation and Fed policy expectations, a few tenths can matter. Still, BLS stressed that the distortion was ... Continue Reading »
• Servicer Retention Fell in Q1, But Remains at Multi-Year Highs
  Posted on Friday May 15, 2026
  Refinance activity continued to recover in the first quarter of 2026, but mortgage servicers retained a smaller share of borrowers despite the stronger lending environment, according to the latest ICE Mortgage Monitor. ICE estimated that roughly 585,000 first-lien refinances totaling $242 billion closed during the quarter, up from a revised 550,000 loans and $234 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025. Refinance volume more than doubled compared with the same period last year and reached its highest quarterly level since early 2022. Refinances accounted for nearly 44% of all mortgage originations in the first quarter, the highest share in four years. Rate-and-term refinances represented 60% of overall refinance activity, marking a five-year high as lower mortgage rates improved borrower incentive. Even with refinance activity gaining momentum, servicer retention weakened during the quarter. ICE reported that servicers retained 32% of refinancing borrowers, down from 35% in the prior quarter. Retention among rate-and-term refinances fell from 42% to 37% . It should certainly be noted that, although retention moved lower in the most recent quarter, overall levels ... Continue Reading »
• Existing-Home Sales Flat Year Over Year Despite Inventory Gains
  Posted on Friday May 15, 2026
  Existing-home sales edged slightly higher in April, stabilizing after March’s decline as improving affordability and increased inventory provided modest support for buyers. Sales increased 0.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million , matching the pace seen one year ago. “Despite mixed macroeconomic signals—including a record-high stock market and historically low consumer confidence—home sales were modestly boosted by the continued improvement in housing affordability,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. He also noted that mortgage rates remain lower than a year ago while income growth continues to outpace home price appreciation. Inventory continued to improve in April, though supply remains relatively constrained by historical standards. Total housing inventory climbed to 1.47 million units , up 5.8% from March and 1.4% higher than a year ago, representing a 4.4-month supply of homes. “Inventory still remains tight,” Yun said, adding that multiple offers are still occurring in some markets even as buyers take more time to make purchasing decisions. Home prices continued to move higher nationally, though appreciation remained relatively modest. The median existing-home price increased to $417,700 , up 0.9% year-over-year and marking the ... Continue Reading »
• Purchase Activity Lifts Mortgage Applications Despite Higher Rates
  Posted on Friday May 15, 2026
  Mortgage applications increased modestly last week, as stronger purchase activity more than offset a slight decline in refinances. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 1.7% increase in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending May 8. The gain was driven entirely by home purchase demand, which continued to show resilience despite mortgage rates remaining near recent highs. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 4% from the prior week and was 7% higher than the same week one year ago. Refinance activity, meanwhile, edged lower. The Refinance Index declined 1% week over week but remained 28% above year-ago levels. Even so, refinance share slipped to its lowest point since July 2025, reflecting the limited incentive for many borrowers to refinance at current rate levels. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate increased slightly to 6.46% from 6.45%, marking the highest level in five weeks. Despite the uptick, purchase demand improved across all major loan categories. Note: this data was collected before the rate spike at the end of the week (captured in MND's daily rate index) ... Continue Reading »
• Higher Rates Hit Mortgage Apps, But Only Modestly
  Posted on Friday May 08, 2026
  Mortgage applications declined last week, reversing some of the prior period’s gains as rates climbed to their highest level in a month. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 4.4% decrease on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending May 1. The decline was broad-based, with both purchase and refinance activity moving lower. The Refinance Index fell 5% from the previous week but remained 29% higher than the same week one year ago. Meanwhile, the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 4% week over week and was still 5% above last year’s level. In the bigger picture, purchase apps remain closer to the highest levels of the past few years. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate increased to 6.45% from 6.37%, marking the highest reading in a month and weighing on overall application volume. Higher borrowing costs, driven in part by ongoing geopolitical tensions, continue to limit refinance incentives while creating some hesitation among prospective buyers. MBA’s Joel Kan said, " Mortgage rates last week increased to their highest level in a month... elevated rates and shrinking refinance incentives continued ... Continue Reading »
• 2-Month Glut of Data Brings New Home Sales Back to Center of The Range
  Posted on Friday May 08, 2026
  New home sales moved higher in March and February. Both months were reported on a single day this week as the Census Bureau continues catching up from the government shutdown.  After dropping to 587k in January, sales rose to 635k in February and 682k in March. This represents a solid bounce back into the center of the broadly sideways range that's been intact for the past 2 years.  For-sale inventory edged slightly lower to 481,000 , down 0.4% from February and 4.6% below year-ago levels. At the current sales pace, months’ supply fell to 8.5 months , down from 9.1 months in February and 9.2 months one year ago. The decline reflects a combination of stronger sales and modestly tighter inventory. Prices moved lower on both a monthly and annual basis. The median sales price declined to $387,400 (-5.3% MoM; -6.2% YoY), while the average price slipped to $503,100 (-3.4% MoM; -1.2% YoY). The continued softness in pricing suggests a shift in the mix of homes sold and ongoing pressure on affordability. Sales (MoM): +7.4% Sales (YoY): +3.3% ... Continue Reading »
• March Housing Starts Surge 10.8% as Permits Slide
  Posted on Thursday April 30, 2026
  Residential construction activity moved in opposite directions in March, as housing starts posted a strong rebound while building permits fell sharply from the previous month’s elevated pace. The latest Census Bureau report suggests builders accelerated new projects even as future pipeline activity softened. Privately owned housing starts rose 10.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.502 million , up from February’s revised 1.356 million pace. Starts were also 10.8% higher than March 2025 levels. Single-family starts increased 9.7% to 1.032 million, while multifamily starts (buildings with five units or more) came in at 446k. On the permitting side, activity pulled back notably. Total building permits fell 10.8% to an annual rate of 1.372 million , down from February’s revised 1.538 million pace and 7.4% below year-ago levels. Single-family permits declined 3.8% to 895k, while multifamily authorizations dropped to 427k. In general, there's no point in reading too much into month-to-month volatility in this data series. What's important is that there's been a decent, supportive floor of construction activity seen in 2024-2025 and a general upward trend since October, 2025. ... Continue Reading »
• Purchase Applications Rise Again Despite Higher Rates and Fewer Refis
  Posted on Thursday April 30, 2026
  Mortgage applications eased modestly last week, giving back a small portion of the prior week’s sharp gains as rates moved slightly higher. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 1.6% decrease on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending April 24. The pullback was driven by softer refinance demand, while purchase activity continued to improve. The Refinance Index fell 4% from the previous week but remained 51% higher than the same week one year ago. Meanwhile, the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 1% week over week and stood 21% above last year’s level. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate increased slightly to 6.37% from 6.35%, contributing to the decline in refinance activity. Even so, steady inventory gains and resilient demand appear to be supporting buyers during the spring market. MBA’s Mike Fratantoni said, " Mortgage rates increased slightly last week, with the 30-year fixed rate rising to 6.37 percent... More notably, purchase application activity was more than 20 percent above last year’s pace... potential homebuyers certainly appear to be moving forward this spring and taking advantage of the more favorable ... Continue Reading »
• Home Prices Edge Higher, But Momentum Continues to Fade
  Posted on Thursday April 30, 2026
  Home price appreciation remained subdued in early 2026, according to the latest data from both FHFA and S&P Cotality Case-Shiller. The two reports show prices still edging higher nationally, but with momentum slowing further as affordability constraints and elevated mortgage rates continue to weigh on the market. FHFA’s seasonally adjusted House Price Index was unchanged in February from the prior month, following an upwardly revised 0.2% gain in January . On an annual basis, prices were up 1.7% versus February 2025, slightly below the pace seen in prior months and consistent with a cooling appreciation trend. Regional FHFA data showed continued divergence across the country. Monthly price changes ranged from -1.1% in the Mountain division to +0.6% in the South Atlantic division. Over the past year, appreciation ranged from -0.7% in the Mountain region to +4.2% in the Middle Atlantic, highlighting a growing split between softer Western markets and firmer Northeastern areas. The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index posted a 0.7% year-over-year gain in February, down from 0.8% previously and marking another step lower in ... Continue Reading »
• Same Old Story For Pending Home Sales
  Posted on Friday April 24, 2026
  Short version: The Pending Home Sales Index remains in the same low, narrow, sideways range that's been intact for 3 years. The good news is that there's been a reliable floor. The bad news is that the top of the range lines up with the historic lows seen in 2010 (April 2020 notwithstanding).  Longer version: Pending home sales moved modestly higher in March, breaking from recent softness but remaining within a relatively subdued range. The National Association of Realtors’ Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) increased 1.5% month over month while declining 1.1% compared with the same time last year. The monthly gain suggests some underlying demand resilience, even as mortgage rates remained elevated. However, on an annual basis, contract activity continues to reflect a market still working through affordability constraints and uneven buyer participation. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun noted that, " Contract signings rose in March despite higher mortgage rates, pointing to pent-up housing demand… A greater supply of inventory will help translate that demand into more home sales. " He added that demand remains particularly rate-sensitive among first-time and younger buyers, underscoring the need ... Continue Reading »

Mortgage Daily News Press