Mortgage Daily News Rate Watch

• Mortgage Rates End Week at Lows
  Posted on Friday June 26, 2026
  Mortgage rates officially hit their lowest level in more than a month yesterday with MND's 30yr fixed index falling to 6.53% from 6.55% on Wednesday. Today was completely unchanged at 6.53%, thus maintaining the lowest level since May 14th, 2026.  There weren't any dramatic developments behind the scenes in term of economic data or news headlines (not that we'd expect them when rates hold perfectly flat). This week's broader improvement can be attributed to buying demand in the bond market owing to large investors rebalancing their stock/bond portfolios before the end of the quarter. As the quarter officially ends early next week, new volatility could emerge. It could be further compounded by the more active slate of economic data culminating in Thursday's big jobs report--the biggest economic report on any given month. NOTE: the jobs report would normally be out on a Friday, but next Friday is the holiday observance for the 4th of July.  Continue Reading »
• Lowest Mortgage Rates Since May 14th
  Posted on Thursday June 25, 2026
  Mortgage rates had a great day yesterday, moving within 0.01% of the lowest levels in more than a month. They dropped just a bit more today and are now officially the lowest they've been since May 14th.  Today's improvement was more of an afterthought, but nonetheless helps legitimize yesterday's heavy lifting as something other than a freak coincidence. The only word of caution is that the last few weeks of any given quarter can see elevated volatility in a random pattern due to considerations in the trading world (mortgages are ultimately based on trading levels in the bond market). In terms of nuts and bolts, bonds got today's modest boost after PCE inflation data came in on target. This doesn't seem like something that should spark a reaction, but the "target" is merely a median forecast. Some traders may have been expecting hotter inflation and were thus willing to buy a few bonds when those fears didn't materialize.  Continue Reading »
• Mortgage Rates Quickly Approaching 1-Month Lows
  Posted on Wednesday June 24, 2026
  Rate momentum shifted noticeably on Wednesday. The underlying bond market saw heavy buying in pre-market trading--likely a result of large-scale quarter-end rebalancing among the largest money managers (i.e. adjusting balance of stocks vs bonds in investment portfolios). Excess demand for bonds = lower rates, all else equal. It also hasn't hurt that oil prices continue declining as bond demand has frequently benefited from the lower implied inflation. The average top-tier 30yr fixed rate fell 0.10% to 6.55--just a hair above June 16th levels of 6.54%. Before that, you'd have to go back to May 14th to see anything lower.  [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Continue Reading »
• Rates Hold Mostly Steady Despite Bond Market Improvement
  Posted on Tuesday June 23, 2026
  Mortgage rates may be based directly on the bond market, but the two don't always move in perfect lock-step. Today was a good example of that. Bonds improved enough for rates to move modestly lower according to typical correlation. Instead, the average mortgage lender improved by the smallest possible amount that we register on our daily rate index. When this happens, it's often able to be explained by the timing of intraday volatility in the bond market and that's generally the case this time around.  Simply put, yesterday morning's best levels lined up with this morning's weakest levels even though the bulk of today's trading took place in moderately stronger territory. There was no major intraday volatility tied to any news headlines or economic reports. Tomorrow is also fairly quiet on the scheduled data front, but the calendar heats up a bit on Thursday morning.  Continue Reading »
• Mortgage Rates Bounce Back Toward Recent Highs
  Posted on Monday June 22, 2026
  Mortgage rates gave back the improvement seen last Thursday and broke above last Wednesday's levels to hit the highest mark since June 10th. This isn't a big range in the bigger picture, but it does leave rates near 10-month highs. The move is also a bit counterintuitive given developments in other markets and typical correlations. For instance, On almost any other recent trading day, if oil prices and European bond yields are both moving lower (they are), so are U.S. bond yields and rates.  The disconnect may be as simple as an ongoing reaction to last week's Fed announcement which confirmed that investors need to brace for a potentially higher rate path in the future and--at the very least--less transparency about how that rate path may evolve. [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Continue Reading »
• Mortgage Rates Stage Decent Recovery of Post-Fed Losses
  Posted on Thursday June 18, 2026
  Mortgage rates spiked yesterday after the Fed announcement. The primary driver was the Fed's revised outlook for potential rate hikes later this year. Because the Fed Funds Rate governs ultra-short-term transactions (24hrs or less), it has the biggest impact on the shortest-term debt and a diminishing impact on longer term debt. While the typical mortgage may be ABLE to last for 30 years, in practice, the average mortgage length (due to refinances and sales) is a moving target assumed to be around 5 years. That's helping us today.  Shorter-term debt is still having some indigestion over Fed day, but longer-term debt has recovered more of yesterday's losses. Top tier 30yr fixed rates are about halfway back to yesterday's pre-Fed levels for the average mortgage lender and in the lower-middle of the range seen since mid-May. Continue Reading »
• Mortgage Rates Spike in Response to Fed
  Posted on Wednesday June 17, 2026
  Mortgage rates quickly erased a week of progress this afternoon following the Fed announcement and press conference. Fed announcement day historically has several components: the announcement itself, the summary of economic projections (SEP), and the press conference.  Within the SEP, there is the dot plot showing each Fed member's assumptions about where the Fed Funds Rate will be in the future if the economy continues on the expected course. "The dots" only come out every other Fed meeting, but they have a habit of causing volatile market reactions. Today's was no exception. The dots essentially show that the average Fed member now sees the Fed Funds rate at least 0.25% higher at the end of 2026 than they did back in March. This is responsible for the first big move in the bond market today. Bonds lost more ground during new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference. The reasons for this could be debated. Some traders may have been expecting Warsh to push back against the dot plot with a more rate-friendly tone. Others may have been disheartened at the lack of any guidance about how the Fed is interpreting incoming economic data. In general, lower transparency ... Continue Reading »
• Mortgage Rates Lowest Since May 14th
  Posted on Tuesday June 16, 2026
  Today's top tier 30yr fixed rate was 6.54% for the average lender. You'd have to go back to May 14th's reading of 6.52% to see anything lower. The latest improvement follows another moderate drop in oil prices and bond yields as global markets digest the U.S./Iran peace deal. There's still some risk that the deal doesn't happen as is currently expected. If those risks materialize, rates could nudge back up toward recent highs. But if everything goes according to plan (or close to it), the bond market may continue pricing in the expected impact on oil prices. The only warning is that some analysts think oil prices have already gotten ahead of themselves in that regard. If those analysts are right, it could limit any additional momentum toward lower rates until peace is on more solid footing. Tomorrow brings the next Fed rate announcement. Markets foresee zero chance of a hike or a cut, but will nonetheless be paying attention to new Fed Chair Warsh's first press conference.  Continue Reading »
• Mortgage Rates Hit One-Month Lows
  Posted on Monday June 15, 2026
  The bad news: mortgage rates didn't fall quite as much as one might have expected following the confirmation of the Iran peace deal. The good news: rates had already begun pricing in the peace deal last Thursday and it only took a modest improvement for the average lender to match the lowest level in exactly one month.  For context, today's MND rate index of 6.56% is the same as the most recent low seen on May 29th. Before that, you'd have to go back to 5/15 to see anything lower. For even more context, prior to 5/15, today's rates would have been the 3rd highest since August 1st, 2025.  In other words, we are in solid shape in the context of the last month, but still in an elevated range.  [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Continue Reading »
• Mortgage Rates Near Lowest Levels in Weeks
  Posted on Friday June 12, 2026
  Some national headlines are pointing out that mortgage rates are higher this week. Those are based on weekly survey data which can often be stale compared to daily rate movement. Actual average rates are now in line with last Thursday's levels of 6.58% for top tier 30yr fixed scenarios. That's just 0.02% higher than May 29th levels. You'd have to go back another 2 weeks to May 14th to see anything lower. What's the catch? It's pretty simple. While we may be near the low end of the 4 week range, that range lies at the highs of 10 month range. It's also reasonably narrow, running from 6.58 to 6.75%. This week's resilience is almost entirely due to progress toward peace in the Iran war. If a peace deal becomes official, there's more room for improvement.  [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Continue Reading »

Mortgage Daily News Rates Update

• Why Did Rates Completely Ignore This Week's Bad News?
  Posted on Friday November 05, 2021
  This week, the Fed announced a reduction in its bond buying. In separate news, the big jobs report was much stronger than expected. Both of these events should have pushed rates higher. So why didn't they? Let's start with the Fed and its bond buying adventures (also known as QE or "quantitative easing").  The following chart of 10yr Treasury yields (a broad benchmark for "rates") shows the paradoxical reactions to the Fed's previous decisions to stop buying bonds. In other words, we knew a paradoxical reaction was a possibility , even though past precedent is never a guarantee.  Beyond that, we also knew that rates were moving higher in anticipation of the Fed's eventual exit.  In fact, by last week, they'd already covered as much ground as they did in 2013. Continue Reading »
• Mortgage Rates Started Flat, But Moved Lower During The Day
  Posted on Thursday November 04, 2021
  Mortgage rates  fell today as markets decompressed following yesterday's announcement from the Federal Reserve regarding the reduction of its bond buying efforts (aka "tapering").   Despite the proximity to Fed day, markets were more inspired by another central bank today: the Bank of England (BOE).   The BOE had its own policy announcement early this morning.  Unlike the Fed, there was broad disagreement about the BOE's course of action.  They ended up making the more rate-friendly decision and global bond markets reacted immediately.  Unsurprisingly, it was the British bond market that had the best day, but there's always a certain degree of correlation between UK and US lending rates.  As US sovereign debt yields fell, mortgage-backed b Continue Reading »
• Minimal Damage For Mortgage Rates Following Fed
  Posted on Wednesday November 03, 2021
  Mortgage rates  moved higher today after the Federal Reserve announced a reduction in its rate-friendly bond buying program.  Actually, to be fair, rates moved higher before  the Fed made that announcement, and largely for other reasons.  The biggest issue today was, in fact, a widely followed report on the service sector (ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI) which crushed its previous record high.  Bonds experienced additional volatility in the afternoon following the Fed announcement, but they were able to recover back to pre-Fed levels within 2 hours. The average mortgage lender began the day offering similar rates to those seen yesterday.  Several lenders responded to bond market weakness by raising rates slightly in the middle of the day.  The average b Continue Reading »
• Another Good Day For Rates, But Tomorrow is Anyone's Guess
  Posted on Tuesday November 02, 2021
  Mortgage rates began the day moderately lower compared to yesterday's latest levels.  The size of the move depends on the time of day in question due to intraday movement in the bond market.  Simply put, bonds improved steadily from the beginning of the day yesterday and ultimately peaked around 11am today.  In general, bond market improvement correlates with lower rates. The first effect of this 2-day move was for the average lender to offer mid-day improvements yesterday.  Those who did (a vast majority) were still able to offer even lower rates this morning.  Lenders who did NOT offer mid day improvements yesterday made even bigger leaps toward lower rates.  When the dust cleared, the peak to trough move accounted for almost an eighth of a percent Continue Reading »
• Mortgage Rates Catch Up To Last Week's Market Movement (That's a Good Thing)
  Posted on Monday November 01, 2021
  Mortgage rates moved moderately lower today despite an absence of significant movement in the bond market.  In general, when bonds improve, rates fall (and vice versa), but it's not feasible for mortgage lenders to adjust their rates offerings in relative real-time as bonds can send massively mixed signals on any given day.   Last Friday was just such a day.  It began with bonds doing very poorly .  The weakness was in place before the average lender published their first rate sheet of the day, so mortgage rates started out higher.  As the day progressed, bonds improved enough for many lenders to make mid-day improvements to rates, but bonds suggested the improvements should have been bigger. That's where today came in.  Bonds began weaker yet a Continue Reading »
• Don't Fear The Taper
  Posted on Friday October 29, 2021
  For anyone following interest rates very closely in 2013, the taper tantrum is not easily forgotten. It describes the bond market's knee-jerk response to the realization that the Federal Reserve would be winding down its bond purchase program. With the Fed almost certain to make a similar announcement next Wednesday, should we be scared yet again? In a word: no .   Of course, we'll need to qualify that.  First off, whether or not we should be scared has little to do with whether or not the taper announcement will push rates higher.  Perhaps the better question--the one to which we can answer a more unqualified "no"--is as follows: Should we be afraid that next week's tapering announcement from the Fed will push rates higher?! There are a few reasons we can answe Continue Reading »
• Mortgage Rate Mini-Winning Streak Comes to an End
  Posted on Thursday October 28, 2021
  Mortgage rates  finally ended this week's winning streak today.  In light of the general upward trend in rates over the past month, bond yields (which tend to correlate with mortgage rate movement) made it to surprisingly low levels as of yesterday afternoon.  Mortgage lenders responded by dropping rates to the best levels in nearly 2 weeks. Things changed today as bonds lost ground after the European Central Bank noted a still-decent outlook for the economy recovery and an earlier-than-expected outlook for ending its bond purchase program.  In general, a stronger economy hurts bonds and central bank purchases help. Then in the afternoon, a scheduled auction of 7yr US Treasuries was met with less enthusiastic demand compared to recent auctions.  The day Continue Reading »
• Mortgage Rates Hold Steady Near Multi-Month Highs
  Posted on Wednesday October 20, 2021
  Mortgage rates  began moving off longer term lows in early August and that trend has continued ever since.  The September 22nd Fed Announcement (and press conference with Fed Chair Powell) served as a jumping-off point for additional volatility and upward momentum.  In contrast, October has generally seen rates rise at a more gradual pace.  On several occasions, they've merely held almost perfectly in line with the previous day's levels. Today is just such a day! There were no notable motivations for the underlying bond market today (bonds dictate interest rates).  As such, today's sideways momentum makes sense.  That said, it's worth mentioning that there are different versions of "sideways" when it comes to the financial market.  Today's versio Continue Reading »
• Highest Rates in Months
  Posted on Monday October 18, 2021
  Mortgage rates had a mixed showing last week.  They started out high before improving through Thursday.  Finally, they took a step back up on Friday.  Now at the start of the new week, the upward momentum is continuing.  The bond market was much weaker in overnight trading, and weaker bonds mean higher rates, all other things being equal.  Bonds hit their weakest levels just before the average mortgage lender released rates for the day.  As such, the average conventional 30yr fixed rate quote was the highest in roughly 4 months .   As the day progressed, bonds found their footing to some extent.  It was enough for most lenders to offer mid-day improvements to rates.  Keep in mind though, these improvements are generally small. Continue Reading »
• No, Mortgage Rates Are Not "Sharply Higher" This Week
  Posted on Thursday October 14, 2021
  Mortgage rates   fell today as a majority of lenders finally got caught up with the past few days of strength in the bond market.  Lenders rely on bonds--specifically mortgage-backed securities (MBS)--to determine where to set mortgage rates.  Bonds are constantly on the move, but lenders prefer to just set mortgage rates once per day, if possible.  As such, when volatility is higher and when rates have been rising more than falling, lenders tend to be more defensive.  In other words, they need to see more sustained improvement than normal before bringing rates back down. Today's improvement was the biggest of the week, and it brings the average conventional 30yr fixed quote well below those seen at the end of last week.  Even so, there are numerous Continue Reading »

Mortgage Daily News NewsLetter

• Mortgage Rates End Week at Lows
  Posted on Friday June 26, 2026
  New home sales weakened further in May, extending the pullback seen over the past several months as elevated mortgage rates and affordability pressures continued to weigh on buyer demand. According to the latest Census Bureau and HUD data, sales of new single-family homes fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 580,000 , down 7.3% from April and 6.8% from a year earlier. Inventory continued to build, with the number of new homes for sale rising to 496,000 , up 2.3% from April, though still 1.4% below May 2025 levels. At the current sales pace, that left months' supply at 10.3 months , up from 9.3 months in April and 9.7 months one year ago. Home prices moved higher in May. The median sales price increased to $424,900 , up 2.0% from April and essentially Continue Reading »
• Lowest Mortgage Rates Since May 14th
  Posted on Thursday June 25, 2026
  Mortgage rates had a great day yesterday, moving within 0.01% of the lowest levels in more than a month. They dropped just a bit more today and are now officially the lowest they've been since May 14th.  Today's improvement was more of an afterthought, but nonetheless helps legitimize yesterday's heavy lifting as something other than a freak coincidence. The only word of caution is that the last few weeks of any given quarter can see elevated volatility in a random pattern due to considerations in the trading world (mortgages are ultimately based on trading levels in the bond market). In terms of nuts and bolts, bonds got today's modest boost after PCE inflation data came in on target. This doesn't seem like something that should spark a reaction, but the "target" is merely a medi Continue Reading »
• Mortgage Rates Quickly Approaching 1-Month Lows
  Posted on Wednesday June 24, 2026
  Rate momentum shifted noticeably on Wednesday. The underlying bond market saw heavy buying in pre-market trading--likely a result of large-scale quarter-end rebalancing among the largest money managers (i.e. adjusting balance of stocks vs bonds in investment portfolios). Excess demand for bonds = lower rates, all else equal. It also hasn't hurt that oil prices continue declining as bond demand has frequently benefited from the lower implied inflation. The average top-tier 30yr fixed rate fell 0.10% to 6.55--just a hair above June 16th levels of 6.54%. Before that, you'd have to go back to May 14th to see anything lower.  [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Continue Reading »
• Rates Hold Mostly Steady Despite Bond Market Improvement
  Posted on Tuesday June 23, 2026
  Mortgage rates may be based directly on the bond market, but the two don't always move in perfect lock-step. Today was a good example of that. Bonds improved enough for rates to move modestly lower according to typical correlation. Instead, the average mortgage lender improved by the smallest possible amount that we register on our daily rate index. When this happens, it's often able to be explained by the timing of intraday volatility in the bond market and that's generally the case this time around.  Simply put, yesterday morning's best levels lined up with this morning's weakest levels even though the bulk of today's trading took place in moderately stronger territory. There was no major intraday volatility tied to any news headlines or economic reports. Tomorrow is also fairly Continue Reading »
• Mortgage Rates Bounce Back Toward Recent Highs
  Posted on Monday June 22, 2026
  Mortgage rates gave back the improvement seen last Thursday and broke above last Wednesday's levels to hit the highest mark since June 10th. This isn't a big range in the bigger picture, but it does leave rates near 10-month highs. The move is also a bit counterintuitive given developments in other markets and typical correlations. For instance, On almost any other recent trading day, if oil prices and European bond yields are both moving lower (they are), so are U.S. bond yields and rates.  The disconnect may be as simple as an ongoing reaction to last week's Fed announcement which confirmed that investors need to brace for a potentially higher rate path in the future and--at the very least--less transparency about how that rate path may evolve. [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Continue Reading »
• Mortgage Rates Stage Decent Recovery of Post-Fed Losses
  Posted on Thursday June 18, 2026
  Builder sentiment slipped again in June as elevated mortgage rates , higher material costs and ongoing affordability pressures continued to weigh on the housing market. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) fell two points to 35 , marking the 14th straight month the index has remained below 40. The latest reading underscores how far confidence remains from more durable levels. A streak that long below 40 has not been seen since 2011-2012 , when the market was still dealing with the fallout from the foreclosure crisis. All three major components of the index were either lower or unchanged. Current sales conditions slipped two points to 38 , while sales expectations over the next six months held steady at 45 . Traffic of pr Continue Reading »
• Mortgage Rates Spike in Response to Fed
  Posted on Wednesday June 17, 2026
  Mortgage rates quickly erased a week of progress this afternoon following the Fed announcement and press conference. Fed announcement day historically has several components: the announcement itself, the summary of economic projections (SEP), and the press conference.  Within the SEP, there is the dot plot showing each Fed member's assumptions about where the Fed Funds Rate will be in the future if the economy continues on the expected course. "The dots" only come out every other Fed meeting, but they have a habit of causing volatile market reactions. Today's was no exception. The dots essentially show that the average Fed member now sees the Fed Funds rate at least 0.25% higher at the end of 2026 than they did back in March. This is responsible for the first big move in the bond Continue Reading »
• Mortgage Rates Lowest Since May 14th
  Posted on Tuesday June 16, 2026
  Today's top tier 30yr fixed rate was 6.54% for the average lender. You'd have to go back to May 14th's reading of 6.52% to see anything lower. The latest improvement follows another moderate drop in oil prices and bond yields as global markets digest the U.S./Iran peace deal. There's still some risk that the deal doesn't happen as is currently expected. If those risks materialize, rates could nudge back up toward recent highs. But if everything goes according to plan (or close to it), the bond market may continue pricing in the expected impact on oil prices. The only warning is that some analysts think oil prices have already gotten ahead of themselves in that regard. If those analysts are right, it could limit any additional momentum toward lower rates until peace is on more solid Continue Reading »
• Mortgage Rates Hit One-Month Lows
  Posted on Monday June 15, 2026
  The bad news: mortgage rates didn't fall quite as much as one might have expected following the confirmation of the Iran peace deal. The good news: rates had already begun pricing in the peace deal last Thursday and it only took a modest improvement for the average lender to match the lowest level in exactly one month.  For context, today's MND rate index of 6.56% is the same as the most recent low seen on May 29th. Before that, you'd have to go back to 5/15 to see anything lower. For even more context, prior to 5/15, today's rates would have been the 3rd highest since August 1st, 2025.  In other words, we are in solid shape in the context of the last month, but still in an elevated range.  [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Continue Reading »
• Mortgage Rates Near Lowest Levels in Weeks
  Posted on Friday June 12, 2026
  Mortgage applications bounced higher last week after the holiday-shortened period, though the increase largely reflected a normalization in activity rather than a meaningful improvement in underlying demand. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 10.8% increase in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending June 5. The gain was led by refinance activity, which rose 15% from the previous week. Refinance demand was also 20% higher than the same period one year ago, showing that activity remains well ahead of last year’s pace despite continued rate volatility. Purchase demand also moved higher. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 7% week over week and was 4% above year-ago levels. The average 30-year fixed Continue Reading »

Mortgage Daily News Commentary

• Sideways Start, Quiet Calendar, Quarter-End Volatility Potential
  Posted on Friday June 26, 2026
  Q2 has been one of the best quarters for stocks going all the way back to the dot com boom, even after the 4-5% pullback in June. This has created a massive quarter-end rebalancing need among money managers and we've seen that random volatility play out in both stocks and bonds over the past few weeks. As the quarter wraps up in the next 3 business days, this could continue to drive volatility, but hopefully/probably less than it did earlier this week. Bonds are starting out roughly unchanged and have little else to focus on thanks to an uneventful economic calendar. Continue Reading »
• Mostly Holding Yesterday's Big Gains
  Posted on Thursday June 25, 2026
  Mostly Holding Yesterday's Big Gains Bonds began the day in modestly weaker territory, but not weak enough to take 10yr yields above the 4.42% technical level. That was a notable development even before considering subsequent movement. The 8:30am PCE inflation data made room for a friendly reversal with modest losses being replaced by modest improvement. Bonds ultimately weren't able to hang onto the stronger levels seen in the morning with gradual selling in the late AM hours and another little pop of weakness following headlines that Iran had attacked a cargo ship in The Strait (not a U.S. ship, or the reaction would likely have been bigger). Bottom line: today failed to place an exclamation point on yesterday's rally, but it still wasn't a question mark. The only caveat is that quarter-end volatility is still a risk between now and Tuesday. ... Continue Reading »
• Decent Start After PCE Comes in On-Target
  Posted on Thursday June 25, 2026
  The PCE price index may be a less timely report than CPI/PPI when it comes to measuring inflation in the U.S., but it's more thorough and has stronger implications for Fed policy. Traders were apparently braced for today's number to be a bit hotter. Bonds rallied moderately after core monthly PCE came in as-expected at 0.3%. Annual inflation is running at 4.1% at the headline level, and 3.4% at the core level (both in line with expectations. Bonds were a few bps higher in yield before the data and are now a few bps lower heading into the 9am hour. Continue Reading »
• What's Up With Today's Big Rally? (Spoiler Alert: Quarter-End Rebalancing)
  Posted on Wednesday June 24, 2026
  What's Up With Today's Big Rally? (Spoiler Alert: Quarter-End Rebalancing) Stocks went on a tear in Q2 with the S&P up 20% as recently at June 16th. AI-adjacent stocks were up over 50%. Bonds lost ground over the same time. That means the 60/40 stock/bond portfolio targets were thrown way out of whack, at times approaching a 70/30 balance. Gigantic money managers (insurance/pension funds and foreign investment funds) take the last few weeks of a quarter to get that balance back to 60/40. This is accomplished via selling stocks, buying bonds, or both. In today's case it was both, but primarily the "buying bonds" part. If the math is so cut and dried, why can't the market accurately price it in ahead of time (after all, it was being talked about)? Ultimately, rebalancing flows are only a small fraction of trading volume. For instance, the stock selling in early June was viewed as early rebalancing tradeflows. This stuff doesn't adhere to a set ... Continue Reading »
• Quick Rally Toward Key Resistance Just Before The Open
  Posted on Wednesday June 24, 2026
  Bonds spend most of the night trading sideways to slightly stronger. Oil prices fell sharply, making it tempting to conclude that's the reason that 10yr yields were almost 7bps lower at 9am. But more than half of the oil rally was over before Treasuries began rallying. There was an obvious and uncommonly large volume spike in Treasuries around 7:50am ET. Oil was still falling at the time. It likely contributed to the bond buying, but not enough that we'd give it primary credit. The nature of the Treasury rally is highly suggestive of massive accounts partaking in quarter-end rebalancing (just a bigger version of month-end trading). Despite the surge, yields are only now getting back to the same old 4.42% technical resistance level that's blocked further progress since late May. Continue Reading »
• Mostly Sideways and Lacking Inspiration
  Posted on Tuesday June 23, 2026
  Mostly Sideways and Lacking Inspiration Tuesday may as well have been a holiday. Volumes were among the lowest for any day in weeks and the lowest for a Tuesday in several months. The economic calendar was effectively empty and news/headlines had no discernible impact. There was token improvement in the AM hours but that merely served to keep yields in an increasingly narrow consolidation pattern that's been underway for over a month. Market Movement Recap 08:38 AM MBS up roughly an eighth of a point and 10yr ... Continue Reading »
• Re-Coupling and Range Consolidation
  Posted on Tuesday June 23, 2026
  Yesterday's most interesting development was the visible decoupling of bond yields with oil prices. To a lesser extent, one could also lament that mid-morning stock selling failed to benefit bonds, but that's far from a regular correlation these days. In fact, the stock/bond correlation is often reversed when the market is adjusting Fed rate expectations. Today's trading session has seen some re-coupling with yields/oil/stocks all falling together. Some of the bond-specific weakness could have been driven by the official launch of SpaceX's big corporate bond, and there's been a heavy slate of corporate issuance in June so far in general. We can also expect random tradeflows in multiple market sectors simply due to it being late June and money managers being required to buy/sell in order to rebalance portfolios to account for recent market movement. Despite all of the above, bonds are trading in a boring consolidation pattern with this morning's little rally adhering to a descending ceiling.   Continue Reading »
• What's Up With Bonds Decoupling From Oil, Etc.?
  Posted on Monday June 22, 2026
  What's Up With Bonds Decoupling From Oil, Etc.? On the average trading day in the past few months, if oil prices were down, and especially if other bond markets were rallying, U.S. bonds were probably rallying too.  Today was the opposite and there are no glaringly obvious reasons. It's the sort of trading session where analysts must go hunting for narratives to fit the unexpected trading action. The quarry of such hunts is fairly limited. There's the notion of an "ongoing reaction to last week's Fed announcement" (which we don't love considering there was already a friendly bounce on Thursday) and from there things get even less concrete, though not necessarily wrong. The upcoming Treasury auction cycle could indeed be causing some hesitation to buy at the start of the week. There's also some buzz surrounding military re-provisioning, which continues to imply ever-higher government debt issuance (a double whammy on auction week).  Either way, the recent range remained easily intact, so while ... Continue Reading »
• Bonds Starting Weaker Despite Lower Oil and EU Bond Recovery
  Posted on Monday June 22, 2026
  European bond yields surged higher on Friday in response to political uncertainty in the U.K., among other things (ongoing global reaction to Fed day and U.S./Iran peace deal status, etc). Treasury yields were set to open higher in the overnight session as a result. All of the above is logical and fairly boring. What's interesting is that Treasuries haven't taken the opportunity to recover. European yields certainly have and oil prices have steadily dropped back toward Thursday's lows. Additionally, the fact that 10yr and 2yr yields are up by the same amount suggests there's not an active Fed trade going on. That doesn't leave many compelling scapegoats. The only two that jump to mind are asset allocation trading (selling bonds, buying stocks), and perhaps some concessionary selling ahead of the Treasury auction cycle. On a more speculative note, the market could also be bracing for various Fed speeches this week, but we'd expect to see 2yr TSYs doing worse than 10s in that case.  Continue Reading »
• Perfectly Acceptable Conclusion to a Potentially Volatile Week
  Posted on Thursday June 18, 2026
  Perfectly Acceptable Conclusion to a Potentially Volatile Week With markets closed for the Juneteenth holiday on Friday, Thursday marked the end of the trading week. Considering the sell-off on Wednesday afternoon, the week had the potential to end on an uncomfortably volatile note. Instead, bonds pushed back nicely in the other direction--even though MBS didn't recoup as much of their losses as 10yr Treasuries. True, there is some sense of foreboding in the inability of 10yr yields to move below 4.42%, but all told, the week was actually surprisingly calm after factoring in Thursday's gains. Econ Data / Events ... Continue Reading »

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• New Home Sales Slide to Multi-Year Lows
  Posted on Friday June 26, 2026
  New home sales weakened further in May, extending the pullback seen over the past several months as elevated mortgage rates and affordability pressures continued to weigh on buyer demand. According to the latest Census Bureau and HUD data, sales of new single-family homes fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 580,000 , down 7.3% from April and 6.8% from a year earlier. Inventory continued to build, with the number of new homes for sale rising to 496,000 , up 2.3% from April, though still 1.4% below May 2025 levels. At the current sales pace, that left months' supply at 10.3 months , up from 9.3 months in April and 9.7 months one year ago. Home prices moved higher in May. The median sales price increased to $424,900 , up 2.0% from April and essentially unchanged from a year earlier. Meanwhile, the average sales price rose sharply to $540,600 , a 7.8% monthly increase and 5.0% above May 2025 levels. While the chart above is potentially alarming at first glance, it's always ... Continue Reading »
• Mortgage Applications Edge Higher Despite Elevated Rates
  Posted on Friday June 26, 2026
  Mortgage applications posted a modest increase last week, though overall activity remained subdued by historical standards as borrowing costs held relatively steady. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 1.0% increase in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending June 19. Refinance activity provided most of the support for the weekly gain. The Refinance Index increased 3% from the previous week and was 17% higher than the same period one year ago. Purchase demand slipped slightly but continued to hold above year-ago levels. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 1% from the prior week, while remaining 3% higher than the same week in 2025. “Mortgage rates changed little over the course of last week, despite the more hawkish tone from the FOMC at its June meeting,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s SVP and chief economist. “Purchase application volume edged slightly lower, while refinance activity posted modest gains. Despite the elevated mortgage rates and overall economic uncertainty, mortgage application volume is running 8 percent above year-ago levels.” Refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 41.5% from 40.3%, ... Continue Reading »
• Housing Starts Not Nearly as Scary Without Weird Multifamily Nosedive
  Posted on Friday June 26, 2026
  Residential construction activity cooled in May, as housing starts and completions both moved lower while building permits edged down only slightly. Last week's Census Bureau data suggests builders are still navigating uneven demand and affordability pressures, with a sharper pullback in starts than in permits. Privately owned housing starts fell 15.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.177 million , down from April’s revised 1.392 million pace. Starts were also 8.7% below their May 2025 level. Single-family starts slipped 1.9% to 882k, while starts for units in buildings with five units or more dropped to 284k. While that represents the lowest level of housing starts since 2020, building permits changed very little. Total building permits fell 0.7% to an annual rate of 1.413 million , just 0.2% below the year-ago pace. Single-family permits edged 0.6% higher to 886k, while multifamily authorizations came in at 474k. Another silver lining for single-family construction is that the drop in housing starts was primarily a factor of one of the largest single month drops in multifamily housing starts... ever. This is such an aberrant ... Continue Reading »
• Mortgage Applications Give Back Some of Last Week's Gains
  Posted on Thursday June 18, 2026
  Mortgage applications pulled back last week as rates moved around in response to fresh inflation data and shifting geopolitical headlines. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 3.8% decline in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending June 12. Refinance activity accounted for much of the slowdown. The Refinance Index fell 5% from the previous week, though it remained 17% above the same period one year ago. Purchase demand also softened, but has generally done a better job of holding near multi-year highs. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 3% week over week and was 3% higher than a year ago. “Last week’s CPI data showed that inflation continued to move higher, putting upward pressure on rates early in the week, but growing optimism regarding the opening of the Strait of Hormuz brought rates down again by the end of the week,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s SVP and chief economist. He said the net effect was a drop in both purchase and refinance activity, with purchase applications still modestly ahead of last year’s pace and conventional purchase volume ... Continue Reading »
• Builder Sentiment Remains Subdued
  Posted on Thursday June 18, 2026
  Builder sentiment slipped again in June as elevated mortgage rates, higher material costs and ongoing affordability pressures continued to weigh on the housing market. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) fell two points to 35 , marking the 14th straight month the index has remained below 40. The latest reading underscores how far confidence remains from more durable levels. A streak that long below 40 has not been seen since 2011-2012 , when the market was still dealing with the fallout from the foreclosure crisis. All three major components of the index were either lower or unchanged. Current sales conditions slipped two points to 38 , while sales expectations over the next six months held steady at 45 . Traffic of prospective buyers remained unchanged at 25 , suggesting demand is still soft despite the start of the summer selling season. “With the nation short about 1.2 million homes, builder sentiment will remain soft until barriers are eased and conditions improve for home building,” said NAHB Chairman Bill Owens. He said Congress could help by advancing the major housing package now before ... Continue Reading »
• Modest Bounce in Refi Demand Despite Rate Volatility
  Posted on Friday June 12, 2026
  Mortgage applications bounced higher last week after the holiday-shortened period, though the increase largely reflected a normalization in activity rather than a meaningful improvement in underlying demand. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 10.8% increase in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending June 5. The gain was led by refinance activity, which rose 15% from the previous week. Refinance demand was also 20% higher than the same period one year ago, showing that activity remains well ahead of last year’s pace despite continued rate volatility. Purchase demand also moved higher. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 7% week over week and was 4% above year-ago levels. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 6.60% from 6.57%, but borrowers still found pockets of opportunity as markets continued to react to developments in the Middle East. MBA’s Mike Fratantoni said mortgage rates were volatile last week, noting that “while the average rate was up slightly,” both refinance and purchase applications rebounded following the holiday week. Fratantoni added that the 30-year fixed rate now stands ... Continue Reading »
• Existing-Home Sales Reach Five-Month High as Affordability Improves
  Posted on Friday June 12, 2026
  Existing-home sales picked up in May, rising to their highest level since December as improving affordability and steady household income gains continued to support demand. Sales increased 3.2% from April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.17 million , and were also 3.2% higher than a year ago. “More Americans are on the move,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, noting that sales reached their strongest pace since December. He said improving affordability is helping drive the momentum, adding that mortgage rates remain below last year’s level and are roughly in line with the long-term historical average. Inventory continued to improve in May, though supply remains relatively tight by historical standards. Total housing inventory rose to 1.55 million units , up 3.3% from April and 0.6% from a year earlier, representing a 4.5-month supply of homes. Home prices pushed to a fresh record high in May, underscoring still-solid demand against a backdrop of limited supply. The median existing-home price climbed to $429,300 , up 1.3% from a year ago and marking the 35th consecutive month of annual ... Continue Reading »
• Mortgage Apps Pull Back Modestly
  Posted on Friday June 05, 2026
  Mortgage applications eased again last week even as borrowing costs moved lower, suggesting that modest rate relief was not enough to bring borrowers back in force. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 2.5% decrease in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending May 29. The decline was led by refinance activity, which slipped 2% from the previous week. Refinance demand remained 20% higher than the same period one year ago, however, underscoring that activity is still running above 2025’s pace even as it softens week to week. Purchase demand also pulled back, though the move was more modest. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index fell 3% week over week and was still 7% above year-ago levels. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate decreased to 6.57% from 6.65%, but the drop was not enough to spark a meaningful pickup in demand. MBA’s Joel Kan said easing energy prices tied to developments in the Middle East helped push rates slightly lower, though “the retreat in rates... did not lead to an increase in mortgage applications.” Kan added that purchase applications were ... Continue Reading »
• Inventory Builds as New Home Sales Cool in April
  Posted on Friday May 29, 2026
  New home sales pulled back in April after stronger readings in the prior two months. According to the latest Census Bureau and HUD data, sales of new single-family homes fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 622,000 , down 6.2% from March and 11.3% from a year earlier. Inventory moved slightly higher, with the number of new homes for sale rising to 489,000 , up 1.7% from March but still 2.2% below April 2025 levels. At the current sales pace, that left months’ supply at 9.4 months , up from 8.7 months in March and 8.6 months one year ago. Pricing was mixed. The median sales price climbed to $422,500 , up 8.0% from March and 2.2% from a year earlier. The average sales price ticked up to $508,800 , a modest 0.7% monthly gain, though it remained 1.1% below last year’s level. Sales (MoM): -6.2% Sales (YoY): -11.3% Inventory (MoM): +1.7% Inventory (YoY): -2.2% ... Continue Reading »
• No Surprise: Last Week's Higher Rates Hit Refinance Demand
  Posted on Friday May 29, 2026
  Mortgage applications fell sharply last week as higher borrowing costs continued to pressure refinance demand, while purchase activity showed a bit more resilience. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported an 8.5% decrease in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending May 22. The decline was driven largely by a steep drop in refinance activity. The Refinance Index fell 18% from the previous week, though refinance demand remained 19% higher than the same period one year ago. Purchase activity held relatively steady despite the rate environment. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index slipped just 0.4% week over week and remained 5% above year-ago levels. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate increased to 6.65% from 6.56%, reaching its highest level since August 2025. MBA’s Joel Kan notes the steady climb in rates over the past five weeks pushed many borrowers out of the refinance market. Additionally, Kan said refinance activity weakened across nearly every category last week, noting that “conventional refinances were down 14 percent, along with an 18 percent decrease for FHA applications and a 34 percent ... Continue Reading »

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