Mortgage Daily News Rate Watch

• Mortgage Rates Jump to 3-Week Highs After Jackson Hole Speech
  Posted on Friday August 28, 2026
  Jackson Hole is a place in Wyoming, but it's also shorthand for an annual event where various central bankers get together and talk about monetary policy. The Fed Chair almost always delivers a speech and that speech occasionally causes volatility in the bond market. This year was a classic example. Fed Chair Warsh's speech focused on inflation remaining too high and on the Fed's commitment to getting inflation back down to 2.0% as measured by the annual change in the PCE Price Index (currently at 3.7%). Even if we use the most charitable methods to estimate annual PCE prices, the index would still be in the 2.4-2.6% range. Those details don't really matter for today, however. What matters is that the market took away a hawkish message from Warsh and the bond market reacted immediately. Mortgage rates were fairly flat before that, but the average lender increased mortgage rates in response to the bond market movement seen after Warsh's speech.   The net effect was a move up to 6.81% for the average top-tier 30yr fixed rate--the highest in just over 3 weeks.  [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Continue Reading »
• Mortgage Rates Hold Fairly Steady
  Posted on Thursday August 27, 2026
  Mortgage rates barely budged again on Thursday, but there was far less data to digest compared to Wednesday. Bonds (which dictate rates) were steady to slightly weaker. The "weaker" part connotes higher rates, but the weakness was late in the day and too small for most mortgage lenders to do anything about it. What does that mean? Unlike the actual bond market, which can move every millisecond, mortgage lenders only change rates 1-3 times per day, and it's usually only once per day unless market volatility is high enough. Today's volatility didn't quite clear the bar. If bonds had lost slightly more ground, we might have seen a few lenders raise rates this afternoon. With that in mind, lenders are heading into tomorrow at a bit of a disadvantage. In other words, if bonds don't improve between now and tomorrow morning, the average lender will likely be offering higher rates tomorrow.  One other thing to keep in mind is that Fed Chair Warsh is scheduled to speak around the same time mortgage rates come out. There's no way to know exactly what that will do to the market (perhaps nothing), but it does create some additional ... Continue Reading »
• Mortgage Rates Lower or Higher, Depending on When You Look
  Posted on Wednesday August 26, 2026
  Intraday volatility in the bond market can make it tricky to track day over day changes in mortgage rates. Lenders publish the day's first rates based on bond market prices around 9:30-10:00am ET, but things can change if bonds move enough.  Yesterday, bonds improved enough in the afternoon for many lenders to offer lower rates. If we compare today's rates to yesterday afternoon's better examples, we're slightly worse off now. But if we compare to yesterday morning, we're slightly better. At times like this, if you're just looking for a general sense of how the rate landscape is evolving, it can be more useful to simply track underlying bond market trends. A 10yr or 5yr Treasury yield is a good approximation of mortgage bond movement. Whether we use Treasuries or mortgage-backed securities, both suggest rates should be almost exactly in line with yesterday morning's levels based on prices at the time of this article. Why, then, did I say that today's rates are slightly better than yesterday morning's? Simple! bonds have lost ground since this morning's mortgage rates came out. The implication is that if bonds didn't move between now and tomorrow morning, the average mortgage lender ... Continue Reading »
• Mortgage Rates Follow Oil Prices Lower
  Posted on Tuesday August 25, 2026
  Fuel prices continue dictating most of the day-to-day momentum for interest rates and today was a notable example. Early this morning, news reports suggested progress in the peace process via Pakistani mediators. Oil prices dropped sharply in response and bond yields followed the move. Bond yields correlate with mortgage rates. When yields are falling, mortgage lenders are generally able to offer lower rates than they otherwise would have, depending on the timing and size of the move.  In today's case, it was good for a 0.04% drop in average top-tier 30yr fixed mortgage rates--resulting in the lowest levels in nearly a week.  [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Continue Reading »
• Mortgage Rates Sideways to Slightly Higher
  Posted on Monday August 24, 2026
  Mortgage rates are based on bonds, but whereas bonds improved slightly from Friday's levels, mortgage rates are microscopically higher for the average lender. The issue is timing. Mortgage lenders set rates last Friday during a time of day when bonds were at their best levels. In other words, today's improvement is only an improvement relative to Friday's closing levels. If we were to compare just the time of day when lenders set mortgage rates, bonds are flat to slightly weaker.  Continue Reading »
• Mortgage Rates Drift Modestly Higher
  Posted on Friday August 21, 2026
  For all practical purposes, Friday's mortgage rates were unchanged versus Thursday's, but if we're splitting hairs, the average lender rose 0.01% to 6.77% for a top tier 30yr fixed.  While many news outlets continue focusing on the mid-week announcement regarding Treasury's bond buyback program, today's bond market volatility was unrelated. Current levels are close to where they were before Wednesday's announcement and that makes sense to anyone who Wednesday's market reaction as 'overdone.'  The upcoming week offers much more economic data in addition to potentially relevant comments from Fed Chair Warsh at the Fed's annual Jackson Hole conference. Continue Reading »
• Highest Mortgage Rates in Just Over a Week
  Posted on Thursday August 20, 2026
  While Freddie Mac's weekly mortgage rate survey may show rates moving slightly lower this week, today's rates are actually higher than they were at the same time last week (6.76% vs 6.69%). Financial news continued to focus on yesterday's announcement of Treasury buybacks after Secretary Bessent spoke on CNBC this morning, but today's bump in rates had more to do with fuel prices. Treasury yields serve as an almost perfect proxy for intraday rate movement with 10yr yields often seen as the most common at-a-glance benchmark for mortgage rate movement (i.e. they tend to move in the same direction by roughly similar amounts). 10yr yields and oil prices were at the lows of the day at 1am. Oil rose fairly quickly through 8am ET and Treasury yields followed. Both peaked at exactly the same time and then remained broadly sideways all day. This isn't as scandalous or interesting as pretending today's rising rates had something to do with market backlash over the Treasury announcement, but it's the more accurate way to make sense of the day-over-day movement. Continue Reading »
• Why Mortgage Rates Didn't Fall as Much as 30yr Bonds Today
  Posted on Wednesday August 19, 2026
  Mortgage rates dropped on Wednesday due to a combination of lower oil prices and the announcement of changes to Treasury's bond buyback program. The oil price angle is easy to understand. Throughout the war, higher fuel prices have caused volatility in inflation expectations and inflation is a critical consideration for bonds/rates.  The Treasury buyback news is more complex and highly oversimplified by the average piece of media coverage. Here are the details that matter: The original buyback program began in 2024 under the Biden admin when Yellen was the Treasury secretary It is not quantitative easing or "new money creation."  Treasury gets money from issuing bonds or via other federal receipts (taxes, tariffs, etc) The program was continued/expanded under Trump/Bessent Today's announcement increased the amount of longer-term Treasuries that can be purchased in any given scheduled buying operation. The goal of the program is to promote smoother functioning of the financial market, but it has a tangential benefit to certain interest rates. Because today's announcement focused on longer-term Treasuries, longer-term rates/yields fell the most. Shorter-term rates actually moved up (which makes sense because the money to buy more long-term bonds ... Continue Reading »
• Mortgage Rates Continue Higher Despite Bond Market Improvement
  Posted on Tuesday August 18, 2026
  Mortgage rates rose for the third straight day on Tuesday with the average top-tier 30yr fixed rate moving up a modest 0.02% to 6.75%. Notably, the bond market was actually in slightly better shape compared to yesterday--something that would normally be good news for rates. So what's the catch? As is often the case when bonds and mortgages disagree, the x factor is timing. Mortgage lenders prefer to release rates once per day (usually around 10am ET) and they only change rates if the underlying bond market makes a big enough move in either direction.   Bonds lost ground yesterday, but not enough for the average lender to go to the trouble of raising the rates set earlier in the day. As such, lenders had to adjust for that bond market weakness with this morning's offerings. Ironically, the opposite dynamic is playing out today with bonds improving versus opening levels, but not by enough for the average lender to drop the rates set this morning. Now for some context in 3 different levels: current levels are slightly below the mid-point of the past 4 weeks, but the past 4 weeks are at the top of the range seen ... Continue Reading »
• Mortgage Rates Start Week Higher
  Posted on Monday August 17, 2026
  After ending last week near the lowest level since July 17th, mortgage rates are moving up to start the new week. Motivations are familiar. Escalation in U.S./Iran tensions is pushing fuel prices higher and bond yields continue to correlate. Bond yields correlate with consumer interest rates with near perfection. In mortgage-specific terms, the average top-tier 30yr fixed rate moved up 0.02% today to 6.73%. This is still much lower than the most recent high of 6.85%, but not quite as low as last Thursday's 6.69%. Continue Reading »

Mortgage Daily News Rates Update

• Why Did Rates Completely Ignore This Week's Bad News?
  Posted on Friday November 05, 2021
  This week, the Fed announced a reduction in its bond buying. In separate news, the big jobs report was much stronger than expected. Both of these events should have pushed rates higher. So why didn't they? Let's start with the Fed and its bond buying adventures (also known as QE or "quantitative easing").  The following chart of 10yr Treasury yields (a broad benchmark for "rates") shows the paradoxical reactions to the Fed's previous decisions to stop buying bonds. In other words, we knew a paradoxical reaction was a possibility , even though past precedent is never a guarantee.  Beyond that, we also knew that rates were moving higher in anticipation of the Fed's eventual exit.  In fact, by last week, they'd already covered as much ground as they did in 2013. Continue Reading »
• Mortgage Rates Started Flat, But Moved Lower During The Day
  Posted on Thursday November 04, 2021
  Mortgage rates  fell today as markets decompressed following yesterday's announcement from the Federal Reserve regarding the reduction of its bond buying efforts (aka "tapering").   Despite the proximity to Fed day, markets were more inspired by another central bank today: the Bank of England (BOE).   The BOE had its own policy announcement early this morning.  Unlike the Fed, there was broad disagreement about the BOE's course of action.  They ended up making the more rate-friendly decision and global bond markets reacted immediately.  Unsurprisingly, it was the British bond market that had the best day, but there's always a certain degree of correlation between UK and US lending rates.  As US sovereign debt yields fell, mortgage-backed b Continue Reading »
• Minimal Damage For Mortgage Rates Following Fed
  Posted on Wednesday November 03, 2021
  Mortgage rates  moved higher today after the Federal Reserve announced a reduction in its rate-friendly bond buying program.  Actually, to be fair, rates moved higher before  the Fed made that announcement, and largely for other reasons.  The biggest issue today was, in fact, a widely followed report on the service sector (ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI) which crushed its previous record high.  Bonds experienced additional volatility in the afternoon following the Fed announcement, but they were able to recover back to pre-Fed levels within 2 hours. The average mortgage lender began the day offering similar rates to those seen yesterday.  Several lenders responded to bond market weakness by raising rates slightly in the middle of the day.  The average b Continue Reading »
• Another Good Day For Rates, But Tomorrow is Anyone's Guess
  Posted on Tuesday November 02, 2021
  Mortgage rates began the day moderately lower compared to yesterday's latest levels.  The size of the move depends on the time of day in question due to intraday movement in the bond market.  Simply put, bonds improved steadily from the beginning of the day yesterday and ultimately peaked around 11am today.  In general, bond market improvement correlates with lower rates. The first effect of this 2-day move was for the average lender to offer mid-day improvements yesterday.  Those who did (a vast majority) were still able to offer even lower rates this morning.  Lenders who did NOT offer mid day improvements yesterday made even bigger leaps toward lower rates.  When the dust cleared, the peak to trough move accounted for almost an eighth of a percent Continue Reading »
• Mortgage Rates Catch Up To Last Week's Market Movement (That's a Good Thing)
  Posted on Monday November 01, 2021
  Mortgage rates moved moderately lower today despite an absence of significant movement in the bond market.  In general, when bonds improve, rates fall (and vice versa), but it's not feasible for mortgage lenders to adjust their rates offerings in relative real-time as bonds can send massively mixed signals on any given day.   Last Friday was just such a day.  It began with bonds doing very poorly .  The weakness was in place before the average lender published their first rate sheet of the day, so mortgage rates started out higher.  As the day progressed, bonds improved enough for many lenders to make mid-day improvements to rates, but bonds suggested the improvements should have been bigger. That's where today came in.  Bonds began weaker yet a Continue Reading »
• Don't Fear The Taper
  Posted on Friday October 29, 2021
  For anyone following interest rates very closely in 2013, the taper tantrum is not easily forgotten. It describes the bond market's knee-jerk response to the realization that the Federal Reserve would be winding down its bond purchase program. With the Fed almost certain to make a similar announcement next Wednesday, should we be scared yet again? In a word: no .   Of course, we'll need to qualify that.  First off, whether or not we should be scared has little to do with whether or not the taper announcement will push rates higher.  Perhaps the better question--the one to which we can answer a more unqualified "no"--is as follows: Should we be afraid that next week's tapering announcement from the Fed will push rates higher?! There are a few reasons we can answe Continue Reading »
• Mortgage Rate Mini-Winning Streak Comes to an End
  Posted on Thursday October 28, 2021
  Mortgage rates  finally ended this week's winning streak today.  In light of the general upward trend in rates over the past month, bond yields (which tend to correlate with mortgage rate movement) made it to surprisingly low levels as of yesterday afternoon.  Mortgage lenders responded by dropping rates to the best levels in nearly 2 weeks. Things changed today as bonds lost ground after the European Central Bank noted a still-decent outlook for the economy recovery and an earlier-than-expected outlook for ending its bond purchase program.  In general, a stronger economy hurts bonds and central bank purchases help. Then in the afternoon, a scheduled auction of 7yr US Treasuries was met with less enthusiastic demand compared to recent auctions.  The day Continue Reading »
• Mortgage Rates Hold Steady Near Multi-Month Highs
  Posted on Wednesday October 20, 2021
  Mortgage rates  began moving off longer term lows in early August and that trend has continued ever since.  The September 22nd Fed Announcement (and press conference with Fed Chair Powell) served as a jumping-off point for additional volatility and upward momentum.  In contrast, October has generally seen rates rise at a more gradual pace.  On several occasions, they've merely held almost perfectly in line with the previous day's levels. Today is just such a day! There were no notable motivations for the underlying bond market today (bonds dictate interest rates).  As such, today's sideways momentum makes sense.  That said, it's worth mentioning that there are different versions of "sideways" when it comes to the financial market.  Today's versio Continue Reading »
• Highest Rates in Months
  Posted on Monday October 18, 2021
  Mortgage rates had a mixed showing last week.  They started out high before improving through Thursday.  Finally, they took a step back up on Friday.  Now at the start of the new week, the upward momentum is continuing.  The bond market was much weaker in overnight trading, and weaker bonds mean higher rates, all other things being equal.  Bonds hit their weakest levels just before the average mortgage lender released rates for the day.  As such, the average conventional 30yr fixed rate quote was the highest in roughly 4 months .   As the day progressed, bonds found their footing to some extent.  It was enough for most lenders to offer mid-day improvements to rates.  Keep in mind though, these improvements are generally small. Continue Reading »
• No, Mortgage Rates Are Not "Sharply Higher" This Week
  Posted on Thursday October 14, 2021
  Mortgage rates   fell today as a majority of lenders finally got caught up with the past few days of strength in the bond market.  Lenders rely on bonds--specifically mortgage-backed securities (MBS)--to determine where to set mortgage rates.  Bonds are constantly on the move, but lenders prefer to just set mortgage rates once per day, if possible.  As such, when volatility is higher and when rates have been rising more than falling, lenders tend to be more defensive.  In other words, they need to see more sustained improvement than normal before bringing rates back down. Today's improvement was the biggest of the week, and it brings the average conventional 30yr fixed quote well below those seen at the end of last week.  Even so, there are numerous Continue Reading »

Mortgage Daily News NewsLetter

• Mortgage Rates Jump to 3-Week Highs After Jackson Hole Speech
  Posted on Friday August 28, 2026
  Mortgage application activity softened last week, with both purchase and refinance demand moving lower as mortgage rates climbed to their highest level in three weeks. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 1.0% decrease in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending August 21. Purchase applications were down 0.3% from the previous week on a seasonally adjusted basis and 5% below the same week one year ago. FHA applications accounted for much of the weekly decline, falling 7% . Refinance demand also lost some ground. The Refinance Index fell 2% from the previous week and remained 17% below year-ago levels. FHA and VA refinance applications saw particularly notable declines, while the average refinance loan size fell to its Continue Reading »
• Mortgage Rates Hold Fairly Steady
  Posted on Thursday August 27, 2026
  Mortgage rates barely budged again on Thursday, but there was far less data to digest compared to Wednesday. Bonds (which dictate rates) were steady to slightly weaker. The "weaker" part connotes higher rates, but the weakness was late in the day and too small for most mortgage lenders to do anything about it. What does that mean? Unlike the actual bond market, which can move every millisecond, mortgage lenders only change rates 1-3 times per day, and it's usually only once per day unless market volatility is high enough. Today's volatility didn't quite clear the bar. If bonds had lost slightly more ground, we might have seen a few lenders raise rates this afternoon. With that in mind, lenders are heading into tomorrow at a bit of a disadvantage. In other words, if bonds don't Continue Reading »
• Mortgage Rates Lower or Higher, Depending on When You Look
  Posted on Wednesday August 26, 2026
  Intraday volatility in the bond market can make it tricky to track day over day changes in mortgage rates . Lenders publish the day's first rates based on bond market prices around 9:30-10:00am ET, but things can change if bonds move enough.  Yesterday, bonds improved enough in the afternoon for many lenders to offer lower rates. If we compare today's rates to yesterday afternoon's better examples, we're slightly worse off now. But if we compare to yesterday morning, we're slightly better. At times like this, if you're just looking for a general sense of how the rate landscape is evolving, it can be more useful to simply track underlying bond market trends. A 10yr or 5yr Treasury yield is a good approximation of mortgage bond movement. Whether we use Treasuries or mortgage-backed s Continue Reading »
• Mortgage Rates Follow Oil Prices Lower
  Posted on Tuesday August 25, 2026
  Fuel prices continue dictating most of the day-to-day momentum for interest rates and today was a notable example. Early this morning, news reports suggested progress in the peace process via Pakistani mediators. Oil prices dropped sharply in response and bond yields followed the move. Bond yields correlate with mortgage rates . When yields are falling, mortgage lenders are generally able to offer lower rates than they otherwise would have, depending on the timing and size of the move.  In today's case, it was good for a 0.04% drop in average top-tier 30yr fixed mortgage rates--resulting in the lowest levels in nearly a week.  [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Continue Reading »
• Mortgage Rates Sideways to Slightly Higher
  Posted on Monday August 24, 2026
  Mortgage rates are based on bonds, but whereas bonds improved slightly from Friday's levels, mortgage rates are microscopically higher for the average lender. The issue is timing. Mortgage lenders set rates last Friday during a time of day when bonds were at their best levels. In other words, today's improvement is only an improvement relative to Friday's closing levels. If we were to compare just the time of day when lenders set mortgage rates, bonds are flat to slightly weaker. Continue Reading »
• Mortgage Rates Drift Modestly Higher
  Posted on Friday August 21, 2026
  Residential construction pulled back in July as housing starts and completions declined from June levels, while building permits rebounded. The latest Census Bureau data suggests builders remained cautious about active construction, even as the increase in permits pointed to somewhat stronger activity ahead. Privately owned housing starts fell 12.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.239 million , down 13.5% from the July 2025 pace. Single-family starts declined 9.9% to 808k , while starts for buildings containing five units or more fell to 421k . Building permits reversed course as well, increasing 5.0% from June to an annual rate of 1.443 million , and were 3.1% above the July 2025 rate. Single-family authorizations rose 2.5% to 894k , while permits Continue Reading »
• Highest Mortgage Rates in Just Over a Week
  Posted on Thursday August 20, 2026
  While Freddie Mac's weekly mortgage rate survey may show rates moving slightly lower this week, today's rates are actually higher than they were at the same time last week (6.76% vs 6.69%). Financial news continued to focus on yesterday's announcement of Treasury buybacks after Secretary Bessent spoke on CNBC this morning, but today's bump in rates had more to do with fuel prices. Treasury yields serve as an almost perfect proxy for intraday rate movement with 10yr yields often seen as the most common at-a-glance benchmark for mortgage rate movement (i.e. they tend to move in the same direction by roughly similar amounts). 10yr yields and oil prices were at the lows of the day at 1am. Oil rose fairly quickly through 8am ET and Treasury yields followed. Both peaked at exactly the same t Continue Reading »
• Why Mortgage Rates Didn't Fall as Much as 30yr Bonds Today
  Posted on Wednesday August 19, 2026
  Mortgage rates dropped on Wednesday due to a combination of lower oil prices and the announcement of changes to Treasury's bond buyback program. The oil price angle is easy to understand. Throughout the war, higher fuel prices have caused volatility in inflation expectations and inflation is a critical consideration for bonds/rates.  The Treasury buyback news is more complex and highly oversimplified by the average piece of media coverage. Here are the details that matter: The original buyback program began in 2024 under the Biden admin when Yellen was the Treasury secretary It is not quantitative easing or "new money creation."  Treasury gets money from issuing bonds or via other federal receipts (taxes, tariffs, etc) The program was continued/expanded under Trump/ Continue Reading »
• Mortgage Rates Continue Higher Despite Bond Market Improvement
  Posted on Tuesday August 18, 2026
  Mortgage rates rose for the third straight day on Tuesday with the average top-tier 30yr fixed rate moving up a modest 0.02% to 6.75%. Notably, the bond market was actually in slightly better shape compared to yesterday--something that would normally be good news for rates. So what's the catch? As is often the case when bonds and mortgages disagree, the x factor is timing. Mortgage lenders prefer to release rates once per day (usually around 10am ET) and they only change rates if the underlying bond market makes a big enough move in either direction.   Bonds lost ground yesterday, but not enough for the average lender to go to the trouble of raising the rates set earlier in the day. As such, lenders had to adjust for that bond market weakness with this morning's offerings. Ironica Continue Reading »
• Mortgage Rates Start Week Higher
  Posted on Monday August 17, 2026
  After ending last week near the lowest level since July 17th, mortgage rates are moving up to start the new week. Motivations are familiar. Escalation in U.S./Iran tensions is pushing fuel prices higher and bond yields continue to correlate. Bond yields correlate with consumer interest rates with near perfection. In mortgage-specific terms, the average top-tier 30yr fixed rate moved up 0.02% today to 6.73%. This is still much lower than the most recent high of 6.85%, but not quite as low as last Thursday's 6.69%. Continue Reading »

Mortgage Daily News Commentary

• Not The Payrolls You're Looking For
  Posted on Friday August 28, 2026
  In an attempt to not force another "Warsh" or "Jackson Hole" headline (because it's a coin flip as to whether it will matter), the calendar offers up another event that is almost guaranteed not to matter. Despite the familiar name, today's nonfarm payrolls data is not the NFP you're looking for (that NFP will be out next Friday). Rather, this is the preliminary annual benchmark revision which can make for big changes in the job count over the previous year, but which says nothing about the current state of the labor market. It's a statistical adjustment that is often blown WAY out of proportion by market watchers or politicians with axes to grind.  Continue Reading »
• Fairly Calm Despite Some Fuel Price Pressure; Warsh on Deck
  Posted on Thursday August 27, 2026
  Fairly Calm Despite Some Fuel Price Pressure; Warsh on Deck To reiterate a sentiment from this morning, there's a decent amount of focus on Friday's Warsh speech at Jackson Hole simply because it's customary to focus on Fed Chair speeches at Jackson Hole. They're hit and miss in terms of delivering on volatility potential. There's nothing else of note on the econ calendar. With Monday being the last day of the month, we could also see momentum from early month-end trading. Other than that, fuel prices continue to set the tone more often than not. Today was no exception as an early afternoon surge in oil pushed yields to the highs of the day after reports that the White House rejected the idea of rekindling the June MOU/ceasefire. ... Continue Reading »
• Counting Down to Warsh
  Posted on Thursday August 27, 2026
  While it may end up being a complete non-event, the bond market is counting the hours until Friday's Warsh appearance at Jackson Hole. There's nothing else on the calendar this week with any serious potential to upset the apple cart (and again, it's debatable that Warsh's speech is much more of a risk than random pre-weekend position squaring). But this is the bond market on Jackson Hole week, so the Fed Chair's speech is always a wild card simply because a few past examples have been relevant. In the meantime, bonds will take cues from fuel prices, corporate issuance, and any oversized tradeflows. Continue Reading »
• Some Pros and Cons in Today's Weakness
  Posted on Wednesday August 26, 2026
  Some Pros and Cons in Today's Weakness Bonds lost ground today, but it wasn't necessarily an unequivocally bad day. Yields were close to yesterday's lows just before this morning's PCE data came out and only moved higher after that. If the data had been better, it's possible today could have started on a stronger note. Oil price volatility was the other notable factor with prices moving up roughly $3 between 5am and noon ET. In light of both of those headwinds, bonds actually lost minimal ground and managed to hold below yesterday's high yields with multiple ceiling bounces at 4.67% in the 10yr. If we see weaker data and lower oil prices ahead, there's no reason to think bonds couldn't challenge this week's best levels again. Econ ... Continue Reading »
• Bonds Pouting After Higher PCE
  Posted on Wednesday August 26, 2026
  To be fair, not all of the PCE data was higher than expected, but none of the top line numbers were lower than expected. Core PCE was on target (notably 0.246%, so it nearly rounded up to 0.3 vs 0.2), but headline inflation was a tenth of a point above the monthly and annual targets. Traders were apparently positioned for better news as the bond market's immediate response has been moderately quick sell-off. MBS are starting out down more than an eighth and 10yr yields are up more than 2bps from pre-data levels. Continue Reading »
• Bonds Rally on Peace Deal Hopes
  Posted on Tuesday August 25, 2026
  Bonds Rally on Peace Deal Hopes The day ended as it began: with bond yields and oil prices dropping in unison based on hopeful headlines surrounding the Iran war. Perhaps the market was in the mood for a rally because the headlines weren't particularly specific or compelling. Oil prices are closer to the middle of their range for the month of August whereas 10yr yields are closer to the low end of the range. This could suggest a bit of a willingness to rally on the part of the bond market, but sustaining the rally would require continued cooperation from oil as well as econ data. Econ Data / Events ... Continue Reading »
• Oil Down, Yields Down
  Posted on Tuesday August 25, 2026
  No point in wasting time/words on analysis when cause and effect remains so simple. After news regarding potential progress is peace negotiations, an overnight drop in oil prices coincided perfectly with a drop in Treasury yields. The end.  Continue Reading »
• Tune Out The Noise (Part 2)
  Posted on Monday August 24, 2026
  Tune Out The Noise (Part 2) Last week, when Treasury announced higher per-operation limits for the buyback program, we advised tuning out the noise. Specifically, this meant that the announcement was not ever destined to be a material market mover or provide lasting relief for rates despite ample media coverage and the appearance of significance. It's more of the same to start the new week. Treasury sources threw out big numbers in reference to buyback operations by citing the Treasury General Account balance (basically, the government's checking account). Markets didn't care and neither should you. A big ramp in buybacks implies an equally big ramp in Treasury issuance. Buybacks can only influence the yield curve and not overall rate levels. Moreover, MBS run with the middle of the curve which might not see any benefit at all from excess buybacks in the 10-30yr space. Bonds rallied today due to lower fuel prices.  The end.  ... Continue Reading »
• Slightly Stronger Start Mostly Due to Oil. Treasury News Fails to Inspire (Again)
  Posted on Monday August 24, 2026
  Once again, Treasury is out with news about bond buying plans with two officials saying the Treasury General Account (TGA) could be used to fund long-end buybacks. TGA is Treasury's bank account. It gets money from taxes, Treasury issuance, tariffs, etc. Therefore, any way you slice it, Treasury bond buying = government spending, unlike Fed QE. At best, it can influence the yield curve, but it can't artificially suppress yields overall. This is why the bond market won't embark on a big, sustained rally in response to Treasury bond buying, no matter how big a deal financial media makes of the news. In today's case, it could be contributing to yield curve flattening, but the modest rally seen in the bond market is far easier to attribute to a decent drop in fuel prices overnight. Continue Reading »
• Incidental Weakness. Bigger Considerations on The Horizon
  Posted on Friday August 21, 2026
  Incidental Weakness. Bigger Considerations on The Horizon Without any data or compelling market movers, bonds came into the day light on inspiration. Low volume/liquidity left the door open for any determined traders to have a bigger-than-normal influence on the market. That arguably happened between 9am and 10:30am ET with both stocks and bonds losing ground simultaneously. This coincided perfectly with an uptick in Fed rate hike expectations seen via near-term Fed Funds Futures. Market Movement Recap 08:34 AM Sideways to slightly stronger overnight. MBS up 1 tick (.03) ... Continue Reading »

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• Mortgage Demand Remains Stalled as Rates Move Higher
  Posted on Friday August 28, 2026
  Mortgage application activity softened last week, with both purchase and refinance demand moving lower as mortgage rates climbed to their highest level in three weeks. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 1.0% decrease in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending August 21. Purchase applications were down 0.3% from the previous week on a seasonally adjusted basis and 5% below the same week one year ago. FHA applications accounted for much of the weekly decline, falling 7% . Refinance demand also lost some ground. The Refinance Index fell 2% from the previous week and remained 17% below year-ago levels. FHA and VA refinance applications saw particularly notable declines, while the average refinance loan size fell to its lowest level since June 2025. "Mortgage rates reached their highest level in three weeks, with the 30-year fixed rate up slightly to 6.78 percent. Mortgage rates have increased around 20 basis points over the past two months, which has dampened refinancing activity," said Joel Kan, MBA's Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. Despite the pullback in refinancing, refinances ... Continue Reading »
• New Home Sales Give Back June's Gains
  Posted on Friday August 28, 2026
  The new home market struggled to maintain the momentum seen in June, with sales falling sharply in July and inventory moving higher. The latest Census Bureau and HUD figures point to another month of uneven activity for builders, as buyers continue to contend with affordability constraints and elevated mortgage rates. Sales of new single-family homes fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 607,000 in July, down 10.5% from June's revised 678,000 and 6.3% below the same month last year. The monthly decline largely erased June's increase, leaving the broader sales trend little changed. In the bigger picture, the new home market has been broadly flat since the post-COVID volatility faded in early 2023. Meanwhile, builders added to the pool of available homes. The number of new houses for sale reached 488,000 , an increase of 1.9% from June, although inventory remained 1.6% below its level a year earlier. With the sales pace slowing as inventory increased, the implied supply rose to 9.6 months , up from 8.5 months in June and 9.2 months in July 2025. Pricing offered a mixed signal. The median sales ... Continue Reading »
• Home Price Appreciation Edges Higher Amid Growing Regional Divide
  Posted on Friday August 28, 2026
  Home prices continued to edge higher in the latest readings from FHFA and the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Indices , with both measures showing somewhat stronger annual gains than they did a month earlier. The improvement was still relatively modest, however, and inflation continued to run ahead of home values. At the same time, the national figures continue to mask a growing divide between markets where prices are still climbing at a healthy pace and those where values have begun to slip. According to FHFA, U.S. house prices rose 2.1% between the second quarter of 2025 and the second quarter of 2026, while prices increased 0.3% from the first quarter. The agency's seasonally adjusted index was unchanged from May to June, suggesting that the quarterly gain came without much additional momentum heading into the summer. Prices have continued to appreciate nationally, but the current pace remains a far cry from the rapid increases seen earlier in the decade. The FHFA data also show just how differently housing markets are behaving across the country. All nine census divisions posted annual gains, led by the East North Central division at ... Continue Reading »
• Housing Starts Drop in July as Permits Point to Stronger Future Activity
  Posted on Friday August 21, 2026
  Residential construction pulled back in July as housing starts and completions declined from June levels, while building permits rebounded. The latest Census Bureau data suggests builders remained cautious about active construction, even as the increase in permits pointed to somewhat stronger activity ahead. Privately owned housing starts fell 12.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.239 million , down 13.5% from the July 2025 pace. Single-family starts declined 9.9% to 808k , while starts for buildings containing five units or more fell to 421k . Building permits reversed course as well, increasing 5.0% from June to an annual rate of 1.443 million , and were 3.1% above the July 2025 rate. Single-family authorizations rose 2.5% to 894k , while permits for buildings containing five units or more increased to 490k . The divergence between permits and starts highlights the uneven pace of residential construction. After June's strong rebound in starts, activity pulled back in July, particularly in the single-family sector. At the same time, the increase in permits suggests builders were still authorizing new projects despite ... Continue Reading »
• Pending Home Sales Slip 2.3% in July
  Posted on Friday August 21, 2026
  Pending home sales declined again in July as elevated mortgage rates and record-high home prices continued to weigh on buyer demand. The National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), which tracks signed contracts on existing homes, fell 2.3% from June and was down 2.2% from a year earlier, reaching its lowest level since January 2026. The latest report points to continued affordability challenges for prospective buyers. Higher borrowing costs and elevated home prices are keeping many buyers on the sidelines, while homes are taking longer to sell and fewer buyers are bidding above asking prices compared with a year ago. “The highest mortgage rates of the year hit right in the middle of summer, and that’s pulling back contract signings,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. He noted that record-high home prices are also contributing to longer marketing times, though conditions vary considerably across local markets. Yun added that job gains could bring more buyers into the market if mortgage rates stabilize or decline, although the effects of stronger employment take time to show up in housing activity. Pending contracts are currently 30% below their 2019 ... Continue Reading »
• Builder Confidence Technically Higher But Still Sideways in The Big Picture
  Posted on Friday August 21, 2026
  Builder sentiment improved slightly in August, but confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes remained subdued as elevated mortgage rates, rising construction costs and broader economic uncertainty continued to weigh on the industry. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) increased one point to 35 , marking the 16th consecutive month the index has remained below 40. This latest reading reflects all the familiar challenges facing builders, including affordability pressures, elevated material costs and weak demand for spec homes, with rising gas and diesel prices emerging as a new face among the usual suspects. Current sales conditions improved two points to 39 , while sales expectations over the next six months held steady at 43 . Traffic of prospective buyers also remained unchanged at 23 , indicating that buyer activity continues to lag despite the modest improvement in overall builder sentiment. “While builder sentiment edged higher in August, builders continue to contend with high construction costs and broader economic uncertainty,” said NAHB Chairman Bill Owens. Owens noted that rising gas and diesel prices are pushing up material costs, while spec home building ... Continue Reading »
• No Major Changes in Mortgage Demand
  Posted on Friday August 21, 2026
  Mortgage application activity was little changed last week as higher mortgage rates continued to weigh on purchase demand. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 0.4% decrease in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending August 14. Purchase applications decreased 2% from the previous week on a seasonally adjusted basis and were 3% below the same week one year ago. MBA Deputy Chief Economist Joel Kan said affordability difficulties have reemerged as a reason for some homebuyers to delay purchase decisions, citing the impact of higher mortgage rates on monthly payments. Refinance activity provided a modest counterpoint, with the Refinance Index increasing 2% from the previous week. Despite the weekly gain, refinance applications remained 18% below year-ago levels. The average refinance loan size fell to $282,200 , the lowest level since June 2025, as borrowers with larger loan balances remain less likely to refinance at current rates. "Mortgage rates and applications changed little last week, with just a slight increase in refinances for conventional and VA loans, while FHA refinances were lower," said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice ... Continue Reading »
• Existing-Home Sales Ease Slightly, Remain Above Year-Ago Levels
  Posted on Friday August 14, 2026
  Existing-home sales remained relatively stable in July despite elevated mortgage rates, with activity declining modestly from June while remaining above year-ago levels. According to the National Association of REALTORS®, sales fell 1.7% from June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.06 million , but were 0.7% higher than in July 2025. “Home sales have been remarkably stable, even amid the rising mortgage rate environment of the past few months,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. He noted that year-to-date sales are up 2.4% and suggested that the housing market could see stronger activity if average mortgage rates return closer to 6%. Housing inventory declined during the month, with total supply falling to 1.54 million units , down 1.9% from June and 0.6% from a year earlier. At the current sales pace, unsold inventory represented a 4.6-month supply , unchanged from both June and July 2025. Home prices continued to rise despite the relatively subdued sales pace. The median existing-home price increased to $434,100 , up 2.0% from July 2025 and marking the 37th consecutive month of year-over-year price ... Continue Reading »
• As Expected, Mortgage Apps Bounce in Response to Rate Reversal
  Posted on Friday August 14, 2026
  Mortgage application activity rebounded last week as a moderate decline in mortgage rates provided some relief for both homebuyers and homeowners considering a refinance. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 3.6% increase in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending August 7. Purchase applications increased 3% from the previous week on a seasonally adjusted basis, but remained 1% below the same week one year ago. Borrowing costs remain elevated and continue to weigh on affordability and buyer demand. Refinance activity also improved, with the Refinance Index increasing 5% from the prior week. Despite the weekly gain, refinance applications remained 22% below year-ago levels. "The reprieve in rates supported an increase in both purchase and refinance applications over the week, although the pace of applications has fallen below last year’s pace in recent weeks," said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. Kan noted that the average loan size for refinance applications fell to its lowest level since July 2025 as refinance incentives have diminished at current mortgage rates. The refinance share of total mortgage ... Continue Reading »
• Another Modest Drop in Mortgage Apps, But Next Week Should Bounce
  Posted on Friday August 07, 2026
  Mortgage application activity declined for a second consecutive week as higher borrowing costs continued to weigh on both purchase and refinance demand. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 2.9% decrease in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending July 31. Purchase applications decreased 4% from the previous week on a seasonally adjusted basis and were 3% lower than the same week one year ago. Elevated mortgage rates continue to challenge affordability, dampening buyer demand despite improved housing inventory in some markets. Refinance activity also softened, with the Refinance Index falling 2% from the prior week and remaining 9% below year-ago levels. As rates moved higher, fewer homeowners had an incentive to refinance. "In the wake of the July FOMC meeting, longer-term rates increased, pushing the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to 6.81 percent, its highest level in more than a year,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s SVP and Chief Economist. Next week's data will likely bounce back higher given that rates have dropped noticeably so far in August. Per MND's daily rate tracking, 30yr fixed rates hit 2 week lows on Wednesday ... Continue Reading »

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