Mortgage Daily News Rate Watch

• Mortgage Rates Maintain Last Week's Gains
  Posted on Tuesday October 14, 2025
  Last week ended with mortgage rates dropping to their best levels since September 17th. Over the weekend, the underlying bond market maintained the gains seen on Friday afternoon, thus allowing most lenders to set rates at least as low as they were at that time. The average lender is actually just slightly lower today, thus making this another new multi-week low. The counterpoint is that the range is still relatively narrow, which each day during this stretch (roughly 4 weeks) falling inside a range of 6.31 to 6.39.  As always, keep in mind that the MND index is an average top tier rate (i.e. high credit score, high downpayment, owner occupied, etc.). There were no major sources of volatility on the calendar today although a speech from Fed Chair Powell had the potential to cause some.  The event calendar will remain more silent during the government shutdown. Once it's over, volatility potential will increase. Continue Reading »
• Mortgage Rates Lowest Since Fed Day
  Posted on Friday October 10, 2025
  Mortgage rates saw their biggest day-over-day decline of the past several weeks today in response to unexpected news regarding additional tariffs on China. Trump had previously been scheduled to meet with China's President Xi in 2 weeks, but  today said there was no reason to do so and that the administration is currently calculating a massive increase in Chinese tariffs.  Stocks and bonds immediately responded with the former moving lower and bonds rallying.  When bonds rally, interest rates move lower, all else equal. Mortgage lenders use mortgage-backed securities (MBS) to determine what rates they can offer.  When bonds move enough during the course of a day, mortgage lenders can reissue higher/lower mortgage rates.  Today's big mid-day rally is resulting in fairly widespread improvements. The net effect is an average 30yr fixed rate that is now as low as it's been since the September 17th Fed meeting. For context, today's rates are only a hair lower than October 3rd. Continue Reading »
• Mortgage Rates Move Slightly Higher
  Posted on Thursday October 09, 2025
  It's getting pretty tough to weave an interesting narrative on mortgage rates over the past 3 weeks. During that time, they just haven't changed that much for the average lender. Today was just another day in that regard. Bonds (which dictate day to day movement in rates) were slightly weaker than yesterday. This implies slightly higher mortgage rates and, indeed, today was no exception. But the important points are as follows: bond market movement has been relatively small on any given day winning and losing days have been in relatively equal supply Bottom line: today's losses leave the average rate easily inside the narrow prevailing range. Continue Reading »
• Mortgage Rates Remain Steady
  Posted on Wednesday October 08, 2025
  Mortgage rates technically ticked a hair lower today, but it's more accurate to view them as being broadly sideways. Some lenders issued improvements yesterday afternoon.  Those lenders were closer to unchanged this morning.   As of this afternoon, several lenders have already issued slight rate increases due to weakness in the bond market.   Bonds dictate rates. Today, bonds took cues from two main events in the afternoon.  The first was a scheduled auction of 10yr Treasuries. Auction demand was slightly weaker than expected. This pushes Treasury yields higher and Treasury yields correlate with mortgage rates.  An hour later, the Fed released the minutes from the last Fed meeting 3 weeks ago. The minutes painted a slightly less rate-friendly picture than was in place at the time. This created a bit of extra weakness in the bond market, but only by a barely detectable amount. All told, the bonds that specifically pertain to mortgage rates were right at the same levels seen during the same time frame yesterday afternoon.  In general, that will equate to mortgage rates being at the same levels as well. Continue Reading »
• Mortgage Rates Hold Steady in Tight Range
  Posted on Tuesday October 07, 2025
  Mortgage rates have been in a very narrow range for nearly 3 weeks with the last major move seen on September 17th and 18th following the Fed rate cut. Paradoxically but not surprisingly, rates actually moved higher after the Fed cut the Fed Funds Rate. Contrary to popular belief, Fed comments and policy changes are not the biggest consideration for rates. That honor goes to big ticket economic data like the jobs report.  Case in point, the rate drop in early September after the jobs report was bigger than the jump in rates following the Fed. Moreover, the post-Fed jump was driven mainly by upbeat economic data the following morning. With the government in shutdown mode, we haven't had the same sort of heavy-hitting econ data--a fact that largely contributes to the recently narrow range. There was some non-government data today from the NY Fed that showed a weaker view of the jobs market among consumers, thus helping rates hold in line with yesterday's levels. Before that data, rates were set to open the day slightly higher. Continue Reading »
• Mortgage Rates Start The Week Near Recent Highs
  Posted on Monday October 06, 2025
  Mortgage rates began the week right in line with their highest levels of the past 30 days.  This sounds a bit more dramatic than it is because the past 2.5 weeks have been very narrow and today's rates are merely at the upper edge of that range (i.e. not much different than the recent lows). There were no meaningful economic reports driving volatility in the underlying bond market (bonds dictate rates), but overseas developments caused broad bond market weakness overnight.  Weaker bonds = higher rates, all else equal. More extreme rate movement remains on hold until the government shutdown ends, thus allowing the publication of the big-ticket economic reports that have the biggest impacts on rates. Continue Reading »
• Mortgage Rates Lowest Since Fed Day
  Posted on Friday October 03, 2025
  Mortgage rates moved just a bit lower today. Relative to any other day in the past 2 weeks, it was unremarkable.  But because the range has been so narrow over that time, and because rates were already at the lower boundary of that range yesterday, it technically resulted in the lowest average rate since Fed Day on September 17th. The underlying bond market was slightly weaker. This would typically result in mortgage rates moving higher. The catch is the timing of the weakness (and yesterday's strength).  Specifically, bonds improved yesterday afternoon but not enough for the average lender to change its rates for the day. Today's bond market is weaker compared to yesterday afternoon's levels, but stronger than yesterday morning's levels (when a majority of mortgage lenders published rates).  In other words, today's drop in rates had everything to do with yesterday afternoon's bond market gains.  All that needed to happen this morning was for bonds not to lose too much of that ground. Continue Reading »
• Mortgage Rates Technically Lower, But Effectively Flat
  Posted on Thursday October 02, 2025
  If we're splitting hairs, today's mortgage rates are half a hair lower than yesterday's, but the average borrower might not see a difference in a rate quote. Our 30yr fixed rate index fell by the smallest increment possible (.01%) and it hasn't been more than 0.03% away from that level for two weeks. With the Federal government closed, today's only potentially relevant economic data was not reported. It will be the same story tomorrow, which was originally scheduled to host the release of the jobs report. No other report comes close in terms of relevance to rates. Going without it means the market is largely flying blind until it is eventually released. This doesn't mean rates can't move between now and then--only that the overall capacity for volatility is lower until the data returns (likely when gov funding resumes). There are non-government reports that matter as well and tomorrow morning brings this week's best example with ISM's Services index. Continue Reading »
• Mortgage Rates Remain Unchanged After Downbeat Employment Report
  Posted on Wednesday October 01, 2025
  Mortgage rates are based on bonds and bonds take cues from economic data. Employment-related data is particularly important. The monthly jobs report from the Department of Labor is in a league of its own in that regard, and while we won't get that this week due to the shutdown, this morning brought the release of a similar private sector report.  The ADP Employment report showed the job count dropping by 32k--well short of the forecast for a 50k increase.  In addition, the previous month's 54k was revised down to -3k. Bonds responded immediately and generally moved back in line with the stronger levels from yesterday morning. As such, mortgage rates were able to start the day right in line with yesterday's opening levels. The average 30yr fixed rate has been very flat for nearly 2 weeks now. The biggest risk/opportunity for a meaningful change would follow the eventual release of the jobs report, but that date is TBD for now. Continue Reading »
• Mortgage Rates Continue Holding Narrow Range
  Posted on Tuesday September 30, 2025
  Mortgage rates were just barely lower this morning versus yesterday's latest levels, but most borrowers won't see any major difference from any of the past 7 business days. Additionally, some lenders issued mid-day changes, giving rates a slight bump in response to weakness in the bond market. With a government shutdown looking increasingly likely, traders are increasingly less likely to see the latest jobs report, originally scheduled for this Friday. This morning' econ data isn't in the same league as the jobs report, but it did provide a modest benefit for rates with job openings remaining low and consumer confidence falling. The bond market weakness in the afternoon was a function of the month/quarter end trading environment which creates market momentum without regard to timely economic data releases. Continue Reading »

Mortgage Daily News Rates Update

• Why Did Rates Completely Ignore This Week's Bad News?
  Posted on Friday November 05, 2021
  This week, the Fed announced a reduction in its bond buying. In separate news, the big jobs report was much stronger than expected. Both of these events should have pushed rates higher. So why didn't they? Let's start with the Fed and its bond buying adventures (also known as QE or "quantitative easing").  The following chart of 10yr Treasury yields (a broad benchmark for "rates") shows the paradoxical reactions to the Fed's previous decisions to stop buying bonds. In other words, we knew a paradoxical reaction was a possibility , even though past precedent is never a guarantee.  Beyond that, we also knew that rates were moving higher in anticipation of the Fed's eventual exit.  In fact, by last week, they'd already covered as much ground as they did in 2013. Continue Reading »
• Mortgage Rates Started Flat, But Moved Lower During The Day
  Posted on Thursday November 04, 2021
  Mortgage rates  fell today as markets decompressed following yesterday's announcement from the Federal Reserve regarding the reduction of its bond buying efforts (aka "tapering").   Despite the proximity to Fed day, markets were more inspired by another central bank today: the Bank of England (BOE).   The BOE had its own policy announcement early this morning.  Unlike the Fed, there was broad disagreement about the BOE's course of action.  They ended up making the more rate-friendly decision and global bond markets reacted immediately.  Unsurprisingly, it was the British bond market that had the best day, but there's always a certain degree of correlation between UK and US lending rates.  As US sovereign debt yields fell, mortgage-backed b Continue Reading »
• Minimal Damage For Mortgage Rates Following Fed
  Posted on Wednesday November 03, 2021
  Mortgage rates  moved higher today after the Federal Reserve announced a reduction in its rate-friendly bond buying program.  Actually, to be fair, rates moved higher before  the Fed made that announcement, and largely for other reasons.  The biggest issue today was, in fact, a widely followed report on the service sector (ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI) which crushed its previous record high.  Bonds experienced additional volatility in the afternoon following the Fed announcement, but they were able to recover back to pre-Fed levels within 2 hours. The average mortgage lender began the day offering similar rates to those seen yesterday.  Several lenders responded to bond market weakness by raising rates slightly in the middle of the day.  The average b Continue Reading »
• Another Good Day For Rates, But Tomorrow is Anyone's Guess
  Posted on Tuesday November 02, 2021
  Mortgage rates began the day moderately lower compared to yesterday's latest levels.  The size of the move depends on the time of day in question due to intraday movement in the bond market.  Simply put, bonds improved steadily from the beginning of the day yesterday and ultimately peaked around 11am today.  In general, bond market improvement correlates with lower rates. The first effect of this 2-day move was for the average lender to offer mid-day improvements yesterday.  Those who did (a vast majority) were still able to offer even lower rates this morning.  Lenders who did NOT offer mid day improvements yesterday made even bigger leaps toward lower rates.  When the dust cleared, the peak to trough move accounted for almost an eighth of a percent Continue Reading »
• Mortgage Rates Catch Up To Last Week's Market Movement (That's a Good Thing)
  Posted on Monday November 01, 2021
  Mortgage rates moved moderately lower today despite an absence of significant movement in the bond market.  In general, when bonds improve, rates fall (and vice versa), but it's not feasible for mortgage lenders to adjust their rates offerings in relative real-time as bonds can send massively mixed signals on any given day.   Last Friday was just such a day.  It began with bonds doing very poorly .  The weakness was in place before the average lender published their first rate sheet of the day, so mortgage rates started out higher.  As the day progressed, bonds improved enough for many lenders to make mid-day improvements to rates, but bonds suggested the improvements should have been bigger. That's where today came in.  Bonds began weaker yet a Continue Reading »
• Don't Fear The Taper
  Posted on Friday October 29, 2021
  For anyone following interest rates very closely in 2013, the taper tantrum is not easily forgotten. It describes the bond market's knee-jerk response to the realization that the Federal Reserve would be winding down its bond purchase program. With the Fed almost certain to make a similar announcement next Wednesday, should we be scared yet again? In a word: no .   Of course, we'll need to qualify that.  First off, whether or not we should be scared has little to do with whether or not the taper announcement will push rates higher.  Perhaps the better question--the one to which we can answer a more unqualified "no"--is as follows: Should we be afraid that next week's tapering announcement from the Fed will push rates higher?! There are a few reasons we can answe Continue Reading »
• Mortgage Rate Mini-Winning Streak Comes to an End
  Posted on Thursday October 28, 2021
  Mortgage rates  finally ended this week's winning streak today.  In light of the general upward trend in rates over the past month, bond yields (which tend to correlate with mortgage rate movement) made it to surprisingly low levels as of yesterday afternoon.  Mortgage lenders responded by dropping rates to the best levels in nearly 2 weeks. Things changed today as bonds lost ground after the European Central Bank noted a still-decent outlook for the economy recovery and an earlier-than-expected outlook for ending its bond purchase program.  In general, a stronger economy hurts bonds and central bank purchases help. Then in the afternoon, a scheduled auction of 7yr US Treasuries was met with less enthusiastic demand compared to recent auctions.  The day Continue Reading »
• Mortgage Rates Hold Steady Near Multi-Month Highs
  Posted on Wednesday October 20, 2021
  Mortgage rates  began moving off longer term lows in early August and that trend has continued ever since.  The September 22nd Fed Announcement (and press conference with Fed Chair Powell) served as a jumping-off point for additional volatility and upward momentum.  In contrast, October has generally seen rates rise at a more gradual pace.  On several occasions, they've merely held almost perfectly in line with the previous day's levels. Today is just such a day! There were no notable motivations for the underlying bond market today (bonds dictate interest rates).  As such, today's sideways momentum makes sense.  That said, it's worth mentioning that there are different versions of "sideways" when it comes to the financial market.  Today's versio Continue Reading »
• Highest Rates in Months
  Posted on Monday October 18, 2021
  Mortgage rates had a mixed showing last week.  They started out high before improving through Thursday.  Finally, they took a step back up on Friday.  Now at the start of the new week, the upward momentum is continuing.  The bond market was much weaker in overnight trading, and weaker bonds mean higher rates, all other things being equal.  Bonds hit their weakest levels just before the average mortgage lender released rates for the day.  As such, the average conventional 30yr fixed rate quote was the highest in roughly 4 months .   As the day progressed, bonds found their footing to some extent.  It was enough for most lenders to offer mid-day improvements to rates.  Keep in mind though, these improvements are generally small. Continue Reading »
• No, Mortgage Rates Are Not "Sharply Higher" This Week
  Posted on Thursday October 14, 2021
  Mortgage rates   fell today as a majority of lenders finally got caught up with the past few days of strength in the bond market.  Lenders rely on bonds--specifically mortgage-backed securities (MBS)--to determine where to set mortgage rates.  Bonds are constantly on the move, but lenders prefer to just set mortgage rates once per day, if possible.  As such, when volatility is higher and when rates have been rising more than falling, lenders tend to be more defensive.  In other words, they need to see more sustained improvement than normal before bringing rates back down. Today's improvement was the biggest of the week, and it brings the average conventional 30yr fixed quote well below those seen at the end of last week.  Even so, there are numerous Continue Reading »

Mortgage Daily News NewsLetter

• Mortgage Rates Maintain Last Week's Gains
  Posted on Tuesday October 14, 2025
  Last week ended with mortgage rates dropping to their best levels since September 17th. Over the weekend, the underlying bond market maintained the gains seen on Friday afternoon, thus allowing most lenders to set rates at least as low as they were at that time. The average lender is actually just slightly lower today, thus making this another new multi-week low. The counterpoint is that the range is still relatively narrow, which each day during this stretch (roughly 4 weeks) falling inside a range of 6.31 to 6.39.  As always, keep in mind that the MND index is an average top tier rate (i.e. high credit score, high downpayment, owner occupied, etc.). There were no major sources of volatility on the calendar today although a speech from Fed Chair Powell had the potential to cause Continue Reading »
• Refi Demand Ebbs Gradually As Rates Remain Rangebound
  Posted on Friday October 10, 2025
  Mortgage application activity declined again last week as refi demand continues pulling back after the surge in mid September. According to MBA’s Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending October 3, total volume fell 4.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis and 5% unadjusted. The Refinance Index decreased 8% from the previous week but remains 18% higher than the same week one year ago. Refinancing activity pulled back broadly across conventional and VA segments after climbing to multi-year highs in September. This is a logical move considering rates were at long-term lows in mid-September and then rose sharply to the present range on September 17/18.  “With mortgage rates on fixed-rate loans little changed last week, refinance application activity generally declined, with the Continue Reading »
• Mortgage Rates Move Slightly Higher
  Posted on Thursday October 09, 2025
  It's getting pretty tough to weave an interesting narrative on mortgage rates over the past 3 weeks. During that time, they just haven't changed that much for the average lender. Today was just another day in that regard. Bonds (which dictate day to day movement in rates) were slightly weaker than yesterday. This implies slightly higher mortgage rates and, indeed, today was no exception. But the important points are as follows: bond market movement has been relatively small on any given day winning and losing days have been in relatively equal supply Bottom line: today's losses leave the average rate easily inside the narrow prevailing range. Continue Reading »
• Mortgage Rates Remain Steady
  Posted on Wednesday October 08, 2025
  Mortgage rates technically ticked a hair lower today, but it's more accurate to view them as being broadly sideways. Some lenders issued improvements yesterday afternoon.  Those lenders were closer to unchanged this morning.   As of this afternoon, several lenders have already issued slight rate increases due to weakness in the bond market.   Bonds dictate rates. Today, bonds took cues from two main events in the afternoon.  The first was a scheduled auction of 10yr Treasuries. Auction demand was slightly weaker than expected. This pushes Treasury yields higher and Treasury yields correlate with mortgage rates.  An hour later, the Fed released the minutes from the last Fed meeting 3 weeks ago. The minutes painted a slightly less rate-friendly picture than was in place at the ti Continue Reading »
• Mortgage Rates Hold Steady in Tight Range
  Posted on Tuesday October 07, 2025
  Mortgage rates have been in a very narrow range for nearly 3 weeks with the last major move seen on September 17th and 18th following the Fed rate cut. Paradoxically but not surprisingly, rates actually moved higher after the Fed cut the Fed Funds Rate. Contrary to popular belief, Fed comments and policy changes are not the biggest consideration for rates. That honor goes to big ticket economic data like the jobs report.  Case in point, the rate drop in early September after the jobs report was bigger than the jump in rates following the Fed. Moreover, the post-Fed jump was driven mainly by upbeat economic data the following morning. With the government in shutdown mode, we haven't had the same sort of heavy-hitting econ data--a fact that largely contributes to the recently narrow Continue Reading »
• Mortgage Rates Start The Week Near Recent Highs
  Posted on Monday October 06, 2025
  Mortgage rates began the week right in line with their highest levels of the past 30 days.  This sounds a bit more dramatic than it is because the past 2.5 weeks have been very narrow and today's rates are merely at the upper edge of that range (i.e. not much different than the recent lows). There were no meaningful economic reports driving volatility in the underlying bond market (bonds dictate rates), but overseas developments caused broad bond market weakness overnight.  Weaker bonds = higher rates, all else equal. More extreme rate movement remains on hold until the government shutdown ends, thus allowing the publication of the big-ticket economic reports that have the biggest impacts on rates. Continue Reading »
• 4% Gain in Pending Home Sales Isn't Exactly What it Seems
  Posted on Friday October 03, 2025
  The National Association of Realtors’ Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)—which tracks contract signings on existing homes—ticked higher in August, but remains locked in the same flat, depressed range that has defined the past two years. Pending home sales rose 4.0% in August, lifting the index to its highest level since March, and 3.8% above the same month last year. That all sounds pretty good, but the chart tells a more sobering story. The overall trend hasn’t changed: contract activity continues to bounce around within a narrow band, showing only modest sensitivity to month-to-month rate shifts (which could also simply be coincidental). Regional Breakdown (Month-Over-Month) Northeast: −1.1% Midwest: +8.7% South: +3.1% West: +5.0% Regional YoY C Continue Reading »
• Mortgage Rates Technically Lower, But Effectively Flat
  Posted on Thursday October 02, 2025
  If we're splitting hairs, today's mortgage rates are half a hair lower than yesterday's, but the average borrower might not see a difference in a rate quote. Our 30yr fixed rate index fell by the smallest increment possible (.01%) and it hasn't been more than 0.03% away from that level for two weeks. With the Federal government closed, today's only potentially relevant economic data was not reported. It will be the same story tomorrow, which was originally scheduled to host the release of the jobs report. No other report comes close in terms of relevance to rates. Going without it means the market is largely flying blind until it is eventually released. This doesn't mean rates can't move between now and then--only that the overall capacity for volatility is lower until the data re Continue Reading »
• Mortgage Rates Remain Unchanged After Downbeat Employment Report
  Posted on Wednesday October 01, 2025
  Mortgage rates are based on bonds and bonds take cues from economic data. Employment-related data is particularly important. The monthly jobs report from the Department of Labor is in a league of its own in that regard, and while we won't get that this week due to the shutdown, this morning brought the release of a similar private sector report.  The ADP Employment report showed the job count dropping by 32k--well short of the forecast for a 50k increase.  In addition, the previous month's 54k was revised down to -3k. Bonds responded immediately and generally moved back in line with the stronger levels from yesterday morning. As such, mortgage rates were able to start the day right in line with yesterday's opening levels. The average 30yr fixed rate has been very flat for nearly 2 Continue Reading »
• Mortgage Rates Continue Holding Narrow Range
  Posted on Tuesday September 30, 2025
  Mortgage rates were just barely lower this morning versus yesterday's latest levels, but most borrowers won't see any major difference from any of the past 7 business days. Additionally, some lenders issued mid-day changes, giving rates a slight bump in response to weakness in the bond market. With a government shutdown looking increasingly likely, traders are increasingly less likely to see the latest jobs report, originally scheduled for this Friday. This morning' econ data isn't in the same league as the jobs report, but it did provide a modest benefit for rates with job openings remaining low and consumer confidence falling. The bond market weakness in the afternoon was a function of the month/quarter end trading environment which creates market momentum without regard to time Continue Reading »

Mortgage Daily News Commentary

• Yields Hug Multi-Week Lows After Powell Speech
  Posted on Tuesday October 14, 2025
  Yields Hug Multi-Week Lows After Powell Speech Bonds were remarkably resilient over the extended weekend given the moderate rebound in the stock market. As of Friday afternoon, yields and stocks swooned together in response to trade war escalation with China. Stocks recovered half those losses by 3pm, but were unchanged to slightly stronger. The morning hours suggested a modest sell-off, but buyers returned after Powell's speech. He didn't say anything that was obviously worth a rally, so perhaps it was the absence of hawkishness that helped. Market Movement Recap 09:38 AM ... Continue Reading »
• One Of The Few Times We Can Say "Strong Red Start"
  Posted on Tuesday October 14, 2025
  Bonds are flashing red on the screen (depending on when you look), but even at their weakest levels of the morning, we'd still consider this a stronger start. Reason being: Friday afternoon's rally lasted 10 whole minutes right at the end of the session. Before that, 10yr yields were around 4.06 and 5.0 MBS were trading just under 99.5. Now this morning, 10yr yields are in the mid 4.03's and MBS are at 99.55--both easily stronger compared to the 4:50pm levels from Friday. Continue Reading »
• Markets Rocked by New Tariff Drama
  Posted on Friday October 10, 2025
  Markets Rocked by New Tariff Drama Bonds were already having a decent day this morning with overnight market movers bringing yields in line with the lower end of the recent range. Mid-day drama caused massive selling in stocks which spilled over and made for an extension of the already-decent bond rally. The culprit? An unexpected tariff threat from Trump in response to... well... something (seriously, we're not sure). Then, just minutes before the end of trading for the 3 day weekend, an official announcement (again, with cryptic references to untoward actions by China). Bonds managed to rally a bit more as stocks sank more, but there's no telling how this will carry over on Tuesday. Tariffs haven't been reliably beneficial for bonds, but they were beneficial today.  ... Continue Reading »
• Overnight Gains on Fed Comments And Japanese Politics (Really)
  Posted on Friday October 10, 2025
  At the start of the week, we noted Japanese political developments as a key reason for overnight losses on Monday morning. This had to do with Takaichi winning control of Japan's LDP party, thus making her the front runner to become the Prime Minister. Her economic views fueled fears that Japan's central bank would ultimately need to sell Treasuries in order to stabilize currency devaluation. Thus, Treasury yields rose. Now today, another party announced an exit from its coalition with the LDP, thus lowering the odds of the fears that were traded on Monday. Bonds logically rallied in response. Later in the overnight session, a series of comments from Fed's Waller (weak employment, not worried about inflation) added to the gains. Continue Reading »
• Uneventful Day; MBS Underperform
  Posted on Thursday October 09, 2025
  Uneventful Day; MBS Underperform It's not uncommon to see MBS outperform their Treasury benchmarks in the run up to a round of weekly Treasury auctions only to underperform when the auction cycle wraps up. That underperformance (or rather, Treasury outperformance) was on full display today with MBS losing about a quarter point while 5yr notes lost about half as much. While bonds are slightly closer to the weaker end of the recent range, they're still very much inside it. Market Movement Recap 09:25 AM Moderately weaker so ... Continue Reading »
• In-Range Weakness For No Particular Reason
  Posted on Thursday October 09, 2025
  With Jobless Claims on hold due to the shutdown, bonds are forced to endure another data-free morning. The calendar offered a glimmer of hope with a Powell speech, but it was pre-recorded and did not address monetary policy. With that, bonds wait for the day's only real potentially significant event: the 1pm 30yr bond auction. We're seeing a bit of selling this morning, but it is very much an in-range affair so far as is anything with a yield between 4.08 and 4.20. Continue Reading »
• Some Selling Pressure After Auction and Fed Minutes
  Posted on Wednesday October 08, 2025
  Some Selling Pressure After Auction and Fed Minutes There were no market-moving economic reports scheduled for today regardless of the government shutdown. That left the focus entirely on the afternoon events: the 1pm 10yr Treasury auction and the 2pm release of the Fed Minutes (a more detailed account of the Fed meeting 3 weeks ago). The auction was slightly weaker than expected, which accounted for most of the upward pressure in yields in the afternoon. The minutes didn't help (even if they didn't necessarily hurt). Notable comments included mention of a few members who would have been OK with no rate cut and a majority of members remaining concerned about inflation.  Market Movement Recap ... Continue Reading »
• Light Calendar; Afternoon in Focus
  Posted on Wednesday October 08, 2025
  While there are a smattering of Fed speakers on the calendar today, the morning comments are not likely to have an impact. In fact, the average Fed speech is a forgettable event these days as there are only so many ways to say "inflation is still higher than we want, but we're feeling a bit more nervous about the labor market." Other than that, it is only the 1pm 10yr Treasury auction and the 2pm Fed Minutes that have any potential relevance as far as calendar events are concerned. Bonds are off to a decent start and volatility has been light in the first hour and a half. Continue Reading »
• Bonds Turn Green After Econ Data and Treasury Auction
  Posted on Tuesday October 07, 2025
  Bonds Turn Green After Econ Data and Treasury Auction Bonds began the day in slightly weaker territory as yields continue to drift inside the narrow post-Fed range. The absence of big-ticket econ data is a key reason for the lack of volatility. But the lower-tier econ data can still move the needle as evidenced by this morning's NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations. The survey showed a slight deterioration in attitudes about the labor market. Bonds moved into stronger territory after that and went on to hit the day's best levels shortly after a well-received 3yr Treasury auction. Econ Data / Events ... Continue Reading »
• Early Gains Erase Overnight Weakness
  Posted on Tuesday October 07, 2025
  10yr yields drifted up toward the 4.20% technical level overnight but buyers showed up at the 8:20am CME open. The initial recovery looks more technical in nature. The subsequent buying brought bonds into positive territory and likely had more to do with the day's only real econ data: the NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations. The data showed an uptick in unemployment expectations as well as a softening in other labor market metrics. This isn't normally a market mover, but sensitivity is somewhat higher due to the absence of last week's jobs report.  Continue Reading »

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• Refi Demand Ebbs Gradually As Rates Remain Rangebound
  Posted on Friday October 10, 2025
  Mortgage application activity declined again last week as refi demand continues pulling back after the surge in mid September. According to MBA’s Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending October 3, total volume fell 4.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis and 5% unadjusted. The Refinance Index decreased 8% from the previous week but remains 18% higher than the same week one year ago. Refinancing activity pulled back broadly across conventional and VA segments after climbing to multi-year highs in September. This is a logical move considering rates were at long-term lows in mid-September and then rose sharply to the present range on September 17/18.  “With mortgage rates on fixed-rate loans little changed last week, refinance application activity generally declined, with the exception of a modest increase for FHA refinance applications,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s SVP and Chief Economist. “Refinance volume remains somewhat elevated relative to levels of a month ago. Purchase activity declined by about 1 percent for the week but continues to show moderate growth on an annual basis, and stronger growth for FHA loans, favored by first-time homebuyers.” Purchase applications slipped 1% on both a seasonally adjusted and unadjusted basis but were still ... Continue Reading »
• 4% Gain in Pending Home Sales Isn't Exactly What it Seems
  Posted on Friday October 03, 2025
  The National Association of Realtors’ Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)—which tracks contract signings on existing homes—ticked higher in August, but remains locked in the same flat, depressed range that has defined the past two years. Pending home sales rose 4.0% in August, lifting the index to its highest level since March, and 3.8% above the same month last year. That all sounds pretty good, but the chart tells a more sobering story. The overall trend hasn’t changed: contract activity continues to bounce around within a narrow band, showing only modest sensitivity to month-to-month rate shifts (which could also simply be coincidental). Regional Breakdown (Month-Over-Month) Northeast: −1.1% Midwest: +8.7% South: +3.1% West: +5.0% Regional YoY Change Northeast: +2.6% Midwest: +6.7% South: +4.2% West: +0.2% Three of the four regions posted solid monthly gains, led by the Midwest and West. On a yearly basis, all four regions were slightly positive, with the Midwest again the strongest performer. Continue Reading »
• Home Price Growth May be The Lowest in Years, But Home Prices Remain Near All-Time Highs
  Posted on Friday October 03, 2025
  Both the FHFA and the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller indices published updated home-price data this week. The message hasn’t changed: prices are still higher than a year ago, but the pace of growth continues to slow. Case-Shiller is now at its weakest year-over-year level in more than 2 years, while FHFA remains stuck near the lowest growth since 2012. The eternal caveat with home price data is that the "lowest in x years" classification doesn't mean home prices are falling if the percent change is still positive--something that's still easily the case in annual terms.  Another way to visualize this is with the simple price indices themselves (NOT the percent change). Note: the following chart's y axis is normalized such that 100 = 100 for both indices (which simply makes it easier to see correlation). The takeaway from this second chart is quite different. Prices remain near all-time highs and have only ebbed slightly in recent months. None of the moderation in prices over the past few years even belongs in the same conversation as the massive correction seen during the great financial crisis. FHFA House Price Index (seasonally adjusted, MoM) ... Continue Reading »
• Mortgage Apps Drop Sharply, But It Was Still The 3rd Best Week in 3 Years
  Posted on Friday October 03, 2025
  Mortgage application activity dropped sharply last week as higher rates cut into both refinance and purchase demand. According to MBA’s Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending September 26, total volume fell 12.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis and 13% unadjusted. The Refinance Index decreased 21% from the previous week but remains 16% higher than the same week one year ago. The pullback was broad-based, with double-digit declines across conventional and VA refinancing after rates climbed to three-week highs. Apart from the previous 2 weeks, the index was at the highest levels in more than 3 years. "Mortgage rates increased to their highest level in three weeks as Treasury yields pushed higher on recent, stronger-than-expected economic data. After the burst in refinancing activity over the past month, this reversal in mortgage rates led to a sizeable drop in refinance applications, consistent with our view that refinance opportunities this year will be short-lived,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. Purchase applications edged lower, with the seasonally adjusted index down 1% and the unadjusted index down 2%, though both measures remain 16% stronger than a year ago. The refinance share ... Continue Reading »
• Nothing New For Existing Home Sales
  Posted on Friday September 26, 2025
  Existing-home sales held roughly steady in August after tepid uptick in July. That NAR reported a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.0 million , down 0.2% from July but 1.8% higher than a year ago. Sales have now hovered near 75% of pre-pandemic norms for three years, reflecting the same constrained but stable environment that has defined the market since 2022. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said mortgage rates are beginning to ease and inventory is slowly improving, which should help future sales. He added that record-high housing wealth and a strong stock market may support move-up activity, even as the lower end of the market remains tight. Regional Breakdown (Sales and Prices, August 2025) Region Sales (annual rate) MoM Change Median Price YoY Change Northeast 480k -4.0% $534,200 +6.2% Midwest 960k +2.1% $330,500 +4.5% South 1.83m -1.1% $364,100 +0.4% West 730k +1.4% $624,300 +0.6% National ... Continue Reading »
• Did Rates Have Anything to do With Big Surge in Home Sales?
  Posted on Friday September 26, 2025
  New home sales surged in August, breaking a two-year stretch of range-bound activity. The Census Bureau and HUD reported a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 800,000 , up 20.5% from July’s revised 664,000 and 15.4% above August 2024’s 693,000. This is the strongest monthly gain since the pandemic boom and a clear departure from the prior sideways trend. The only caveat is that this data series is notorious for wide margins of error and revisions. For-sale inventory fell to 490,000 , down 1.4% from July and 4.0% higher than a year ago. At the current sales pace, that represents a 7.4-month supply , a sharp drop from July’s 9.0 months and nearly 10% below August 2024. It is normal for inventory to move lower when sales increase, all else equal. Prices moved higher with the sales surge. The median sales price climbed to $413,500 (+4.7% MoM; +1.9% YoY), while the average price jumped to $534,100 (+11.7% MoM; +12.3% YoY). The share of $1 million-plus homes rose to roughly 7% of total sales, double July’s level, helping lift the average. Regional Sales (MoM): Northeast +72.2%, Midwest +12.7%, South ... Continue Reading »
• Mortgage Apps Barely Advance Thanks to Previous Week's Momentum
  Posted on Friday September 26, 2025
  Mortgage application activity technically hit another long-term high last week, but that's only because it was riding the coattails of the previous week's stellar momentum. According to MBA’s Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending September 19, total volume rose 0.6% on a seasonally adjusted basis and 0.1% unadjusted. The Refinance Index increased 1% from the previous week and is running 42% higher than the same week one year ago. The modest improvement was likely driven by the lower rates available early in the survey period. As rates have snapped back to slightly higher levels, it makes good sense to see things level-off. "Interest rates generally have moved up following the FOMC meeting last week but remain in a range that is favorable for many borrowers,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. Purchase applications were similarly steady, with the seasonally adjusted index up 0.3% and the unadjusted index down 1% while remaining 18% stronger than a year ago. The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 60.2% of total applications. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share decreased to 8.9%. The FHA share of ... Continue Reading »
• Builders Counting on Lower Rates to Break the Traffic Jam
  Posted on Friday September 19, 2025
  Builder confidence levels continued kicking a sad little can down the same long and lonesome road. The September National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) held flat at 32, extending the streak to 17 consecutive months below the key 50 mark that separates expansion from contraction. While the overall index isn't pretty, there was some positive movement in the component index that focuses on sales expectations over the next 6 months, which rose to its highest levels in 6 months. These expectations are responsible for keeping overall confidence from sinking to new long-term lows--largely weighed down by historically low buyer traffic. With affordability being a key concern, the recent drop in mortgage rates could help break that traffic jam, assuming it sticks. The rate outlook got a bit fuzzier in the 2nd half of the week as the average 30yr fixed rate ticked up somewhat sharply from the lowest levels in a year to the highest levels in 2 weeks.  [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Pricing pressure remains widespread. NAHB reported that 36% of builders cut home prices in September, with an average reduction of 5%. Meanwhile, 64% of builders offered sales incentives—still an ... Continue Reading »
• Big Drop in Building Permits, But Construction Pace is Still Fairly Steady
  Posted on Friday September 19, 2025
  The Census Bureau’s latest Residential Construction report showed a mixed picture for August, highlighted by a sharp drop in building permits. Total housing starts (the groundbreaking phase of construction) fell 2.3% to a 1.398 million annual rate, led by a 3.4% decline in single-family starts to 906k. Multifamily activity eased 1.5% to 464k but continues to trend higher over the past several months, signaling sustained demand for apartments and other multi-unit projects. The standout shift came on the permitting side. Total permits dropped 6.8% to a 1.264 million annual pace—one of the steepest monthly declines in years. Single-family permits slid 5.1% to 827k and multifamily permits fell 9.3% to 437k. Importantly, though, permits had been running well above starts for much of the year. This latest pullback brings the two measures into closer alignment, suggesting a more balanced pipeline. Note the broadly flat pace of housing starts.  This suggests a fairly steady pace of construction for now. Continue Reading »
• Biggest Jump in Mortgage Applications Since 2021
  Posted on Friday September 19, 2025
  What a difference a week makes for mortgage application demand. As we noted last week, mortgage rates were already trending lower than those captured in the weekly survey numbers from MBA and Freddie Mac.  The expectation was that refinance activity would be surging in this week's data.  That turns out to have been an understatement. For the first time in several years, we have to take our chart of MBA's refinance applications all the way back to 2022 in order to provide context for the levels achieved this week.  Until now, September 2024 set the high water mark. That's a whopping 58% increase in refi demand versus last week, and it's 70% higher than the same week one year ago. The Purchase Index rose only 3%, but that leaves it near the best levels since early 2023. Overall applications were up 29.7%, the 2nd biggest jump since the last week of 2022, and in outright terms, application activity rose by the highest amount since July 2021! There are already clouds on the horizon, unfortunately.  On the same day these numbers were released, rates began moving ... Continue Reading »

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